Manufacturers’ sentiment index jumps to 36,61 in third quarter, Namibia
Namibian.com.na - Oct 23rd 2013, 10:12
The manufacturers’ sentiment index jumped to 36,61 in the third quarter of this year from the -14,89 recorded at the end of the previous quarter, Simonis Storm Securities (SSS) said in a report released earlier this month.
SSS said the present situation index increased to 22,56 from -35,24 and expectations index also increased from 10,56 to 54,17.
“It appears the tides changed during the third quarter with the outlook from this sector moving from negative to positive,” the report said.
During the third quarter, 48% of the manufacturers experienced an increase in production volumes. Eight percent of manufacturers experienced “above normal” levels in terms of their export order books, down from 17% in the second quarter. Capacity utilisation increased sharply from 69% to 78% .
“Employment levels in this sector remain virtually the same over the next quarter. The number of manufacturers who experienced an increase in their production volumes during the third quarter has increased to 48% from 13% in the second quarter. Furthermore, the number of respondents experiencing decreasing manufacturing volumes decreased from 31% to five percent over the same period. Three percent of respondents recorded above normal order levels, greater than the six percent recorded in the second quarter. 19% of the respondents indicated that orders have decreased and 38% showed that their numbers have stayed the same,” SSS said.
The report said 62% of the respondents indicated that their export level books have remained the same. Eight percent of the respondents (as opposed to 17% in the second quarter) registered above normal export orders. Those reporting a decrease in export order levels moderated to 31% from 33% in the second quarter, the report.
SSS said there has been an increase in those that reported above normal levels of stocks of finished goods with these figures increasing from 13% to 19%. Those that reported below normal stock levels also increased to 24% from 13%.
“Manufacturers’ views of the current business situation appear to be optimistic with 43% of the respondents gauging the situation as good.”
“10% feel that the situation has worsened while 48% feel that the situation has stayed the same. Capacity utilisation amongst manufacturers has improved dramatically from 69% to 78%,” SSS said.
The report said there is a positive outlook for production in terms of volumes with 38% being bullish about the last quarter of 2013. Those who expected volumes to decline represented 19%, much lower than the 31% in the third quarter.
“The number of respondents expecting higher selling prices in the coming quarter decreased from 56% to 52%. Expectancy for a decreased selling price has dropped from six percent in the previous quarter to five percent.
“The outlook for employment for the next quarter indicates that most manufacturers seem content with their current employment levels. 81% of the respondents indicated that employment levels will remain virtually the same. 14% feel that there will be an increase in their workforce while only five percent feel that there will be a decrease in number of people employed,” the report said.
The outlook for general business conditions for the next quarter has improved, with 43% respondents expecting business conditions to revitalise. 14% expect the situation to worsen in the fourth quarter. For the third quarter, 39% of manufacturers’ inputs originate in Namibia and 45% from the rest of SACU.
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