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BCI rises for second quarter in a row – RMB
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After rising by 5 points to 28 during the fourth quarter of 2009, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) jumped by a further 15 points to a level of 43 during the first quarter of 2010, data from RMB showed today.
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SA consumers will maintain spending levels this year
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About 44 percent of South African consumers expect to maintain their spending on discretionary items over the coming six months, seven percentage points higher than the last survey conducted six months ago, the latest MasterCard Worldwide Survey of Consumer Purchasing Priorities revealed on Monday.
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Business confidence on the up
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Johannesburg - Business confidence improved in February, according to the Business Confidence Index (BCI) released by the SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) on Wednesday.
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PMI's 3-year high shows recovery gaining traction
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The rise in the purchasing managers' index (PMI) to its highest level in three years was yesterday welcomed by economists, who said that it was a sign that the economic recovery was gaining traction and inventories were being replenished in anticipation of meeting growing consumer demand.
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Food inflation still a concern
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Cape Town - Food inflation which, according to Statistics South Africa's latest announcement, stood at 2.4% in January, is still higher than that in developed countries.
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Borrowing points to a gradual recovery
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Private-sector borrowing fell in January for the fourth month running, supporting the view that the economy would not enjoy a rapid recovery from its first recession in 17 years.
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Trade deficit for SA as exports dive in January
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SA’s trade balance swung back into the red with a bigger than expected deficit in January as exports plunged much faster than imports, data from the South African Revenue Service (SARS) showed on Friday.
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Consumers still cold on credit
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Johannesburg - Demand for credit from South Africa's private sector fell for the fourth month in a row in January, highlighting the still-vulnerable state of household finances that could slow the pace of economic recovery.
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January PPI jumps 2.7% year on year
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Producer prices are rising once more after falling for most of last year. Statistics SA reported yesterday that prices of goods as they leave farms, mines and factories had risen 2.7 percent year on year in January and 1.3 percent in the month alone.
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Recovery depends on reluctant consumers
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SA’s economic recovery is gathering momentum, but will stay vulnerable until there is a clear revival in consumer demand, the main growth engine, analysts say.
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SA exiting recession 'quickly'
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Cape Town - South Africa is coming out of its first recession in almost two decades reasonably quickly, Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus said on Tuesday, as data showed the economy growing late last year.
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SA retail sales fall less than expected
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South Africa's retail sales fell by a less-than-expected 3,7% year-on-year in December, data showed on Wednesday, showing still-weak consumer demand but signs the sector may be on the mend.
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Inflation 'to fall below 6%'
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Johannesburg - South Africa's consumer price inflation is expected to fall below 6% from February 2010, the Bureau of Economic Research (BER) said on Monday.
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Food prices may spike again
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Cape Town - Consumers should not be misled by the current decline in food inflation. This trend could reverse in less than no time, with global food prices again rising steeply.
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Gordhan faces double whammy
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Cape Town - Finance Minster Pravin Gordhan will be forced to change some earlier forecasts of his 2010 budget, but far from being evidence of a leftward lurch, these will be moves to adapt to the prevailing economic climate, economists said.
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Frail SA recovery causes concern
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Johannesburg - A timid recovery in business confidence is worrying the SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci), which says the recession has led to a reserved and cagey environment.
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People line up for counselling
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The number of applicants for debt counselling was expected to grow by 14 percent this month, Debtbusters said yesterday.
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Credit growth expected to surge
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Credit growth would start improving off a low base this year as consumers responded to lower interest rates and banks gradually eased requirements, an economist said yesterday.
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SA economy 'bouncing back'
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Bloemfontein - There is a definite possibility that South Africa's growth rate could be close to 5% this year and even improve to 6% in 2011, reckoned Dr Roelof Botha, economic adviser at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).
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Revival at factories gives rare jobs boost
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Manufacturing activity quickened for the sixth month in a row last month, and employment in the sector picked up for the first time since April 2008, a key industry survey showed yesterday.
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SA December credit demand falls
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Demand for credit by South Africa's private sector fell for the third consecutive time in the year in December, showing spending by households and companies remains subdued and backing the case for lower interest rates.
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SA consumers hit rock bottom
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Johannesburg - The findings of the MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence for South Africa point to the lowest consumer confidence levels recorded since 2004.
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Food takes smaller CPI bite
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Johannesburg - A substantial slowdown in the rise of food prices translated into lower-than-expected inflation during December.
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SA CEOs upbeat on prospects
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Johannesburg - While expressing an overwhelming affirmation that South Africa was through the worst of the recession and hope for an upturn in mid-2010, the country's corporate leaders remained cautiously optimistic about short-term growth prospects.
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Indicator signals upswing
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Data on the Reserve Bank's composite lead indicator, released yesterday, show it rose in November for the eighth month in a row, from 116.5 in October to 119.8.
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SA not yet out of the woods
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Johannesburg - The financial vulnerability of South African consumers improved slightly during the fourth quarter of 2009, although general levels of vulnerability remain a serious concern, according to the latest results of the Consumer Financial Vulnerability Index (CFVI).
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Spending patterns reveal past inequity
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Sixteen years into democracy, the earning capacity and economic dominance of South Africa's white population continues to overshadow other races, although a strong shift in wealth has occurred in the black population.
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Factories are out of the doldrums
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The rise in the purchasing managers' index (PMI) - a key indicator of the health of the manufacturing sector - provides evidence that the recession has ended and the slowdown on the factory floor has bottomed out, but economists are cautious about predicting massive job creation.
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Strong rand fuels hopes for rate cut
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There is a chance that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates in the first quarter of this year, but the move would not curb gains in the rand, which are being driven by global forces, analysts say.
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SA business confidence down on recovery worries
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South Africa's business confidence index fell in December on concerns that an economic recovery from a recession will be weak, sponsor South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) said on Thursday.
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Consumer cheer on the way
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Johannesburg - Prospects are looking good for South African consumers in 2010, with experts predicting that big-ticket items could return to shopping lists.
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Export drop hits SA trade data
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Johannesburg - South Africa recorded a trade deficit of R2.474bn for its trade with non-Southern African Customs Union trading partners in November after a deficit of R6.709bn in October, according to Customs & Excise figures released on Wednesday.
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Shopping online is gaining traction
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DESPITE low broadband access and high internet prices, South African consumers prefer shopping online because it is cheap and convenient, and this is expected to boost sales of online retailers, according to Online Car Bid, an online car auction website.
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'Retail crackdown won't help'
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Johannesburg - The Competition Commission won't succeed in bringing food prices down by punishing retailers for their trading practices, as these groups are already trading on razor-thin margins.
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Interest rate hike on horizon
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Johannesburg - The possibility of near-term positive inflation surprises remains, given the rand's continued strength, but beyond the middle of next year, the outlook is decidedly more worrying, according to economists.
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Number of credit accounts inches up
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SA’s subdued credit market is stirring, but it is unclear whether consumer appetite is growing, or people are borrowing more to see them through the tough times.
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Plunge in investment dims hopes for growth
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Consumer spending fell more slowly in the third quarter of this year, but investment shrank at its sharpest pace in more than a decade, fanning concern over SA’s tentative economic recovery.
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Retail data not a merry picture
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The rising swell of unemployment, high bad debt and stringent lending criteria caused retail sales to drop by 6.5 percent year on year in October, puncturing hopes of a festive pick-up.
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SA's factories face better days
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After the "longest and most severe decline" in the manufacturing sector, the Kagiso Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) on Tuesday showed the fortunes of the country's factories are set to make an about-turn.
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Deficit triggers rand slide
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Johannesburg - SA reported an unexpected trade deficit for October, data released by the SA Revenue Service on Monday showed.
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SA gives credit thumbs down
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Johannesburg - Demand for credit by South Africa's private sector fell for the first time since 1966 in October, pointing to tight credit conditions that will lead to a slow economic recovery from recession.
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No Christmas gifts for retailers
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South African retailers anticipate poor Christmas sales compared with last year's weak till receipts, with the durable goods sector likely to be hardest hit, a Bureau for Economic Research (BER) and Ernst & Young (E&Y) survey showed yesterday.
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Consumer inflation figures 'great news'
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South Africa's targeted consumer inflation slowed in line with expectations to 5,9% year-on-year in October, returning to the 3% to 6% target band for the first time in more than two-and-a-half years, official data showed on Wednesday.
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Recession over but SA faces long, slow recovery
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The recession has ended, with the economy turning mildly positive after three negative quarters as the manufacturing sector bounced back in response to a pickup in global demand, and spending by the government helped to cushion the economy from the downturn.
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Economy crawling out of recession
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Local markets are likely to be refreshed by a flood of good news this week, with data showing the economy has pulled out of recession, while inflation has fallen back inside its official target range for the first time in two-and-a-half years.
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Recession to end this year - OECD
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Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth would likely be negative for this year but South Africa would emerge from the recession in the fourth quarter as the global financial downturn eased, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said yesterday.
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Slowdown in consumer credit continues: NCR
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The total value of new credit granted declined from R51.87bn in the quarter ended March 2009 to R50.93bn for the quarter ended June 2009 - a decrease of 1.83% compared with the previous quarter and a decline of 40.52% compared with the previous year, the National Credit Regulator (NCR) said today.
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Reserve Bank: SA growing again
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Pretoria - South Africa's current monetary policy stance is "adequate" to cool inflation while also allowing for the economy to return to growth, the central bank said on Wednesday.
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Hopes of recovery in retail diminish
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Hopes that retail trade sales would pick up towards the end of the year were dashed by a significant drop in September year-on-year figures released by Statistics SA yesterday.
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Repo rate steady with Eskom poised
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The Reserve Bank kept interest rates steady yesterday as expected with new governor Gill Marcus highlighting the role global events play in SA’s tentative economic recovery.
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Reserve Bank focus may change
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Johannesburg - South Africa's ruling ANC and its partners will only begin a debate on broadening the mandate of the central bank in 2010, alliance insiders told Reuters on Monday.
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SA business confidence dips in October
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The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell by 3,3 points to 82,2 in October 2009, diminishing the gain of 2,5 points in September 2009, it was announced on Tuesday.
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Financial review shows distress continues
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Households remained financially vulnerable in the second quarter, according to the Reserve Bank's biannual Financial Stability Review (FSR), with eight of 13 indicators signalling distress.
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Consumers wary of old saving ways
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More than half of the respondents in a study of 16 countries have permanently changed their attitude to saving as a result of the credit crunch, with 79% of South Africans saying they would do their best not to go back to spending what they used to once the economy revives.
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Trade surplus posted as exports rise 12.8%
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South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R3.87 billion in September, data showed on Friday, as the local recession drove imports down, while economic recovery in overseas markets buoyed exports.
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Public debt balloons on recovery hopes
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The budget deficit would balloon in line with expectations this year, to a 40-year peak, but return to more sustainable levels as the economy recovered from recession over the next few years, the Treasury said yesterday.
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Mboweni signs off with rate hold
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While borrowers are still hoping for a further rate cut in the future, after Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni announced yesterday the bank's repo rate would remain at seven percent, financial markets started pricing in a rate increase.
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SA consumers in dire straits
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Cape Town - Average South African consumers' financial affairs deteriorated to such an extent in the third quarter that they are now practically in a state of collapse.
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Retail sales slide, stir rate cut hopes
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South Africa's retail sales contracted by a worse than expected 7% annually in August, stirring hopes for another cut in interest rates despite central bank Governor Tito Mboweni's hints against it.
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Eskom hike 'will stunt recovery'
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Johannesburg - Power utility Eskom's proposed 45% tariff increase will retard economic recovery and add pressure to inflation, while hitting small businesses and poor consumers the hardest, critics have said.
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Trade activity surges
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Johannesburg - The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry's (Sacci's) Trade Activity Index (TAI), which reflects current trade conditions, surged to 53 in September 2009 from 44 in August 2009.
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SA consumers still struggling
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Johannesburg - The percentage of consumers in good standing has decreased, the National Credit Regulator (NCR) said on Wednesday.
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Business confidence reaches 10-month high
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Business confidence hit its highest level in 10 months, a key index showed yesterday, boosting hopes that the economy is set to recover from its first recession since 1992.
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Bank expects recovery by year-end
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SA’s economy is set to emerge from recession by the end of this year, although it is likely to lag the global recovery, Reserve Bank deputy governor Daniel Mminele has said.
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Stats SA to revamp key measure of PPI
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Crucial economic data from Statistics SA will be upgraded. On Friday, the agency announced a revamp of its producer price index (PPI) to better reflect price shifts in the production side of the economy.
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Factories stage an amazing comeback
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Manufacturing activity made a spectacular recovery last month, suggesting the embattled sector may start growing again in the fourth quarter, in line with global trends.
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Consumer confidence drops, survey shows
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Confidence among South Africa's consumers fell to 1 in the third quarter from 4 in the second quarter, a survey by the First National Bank (FNB) and the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) showed yesterday.
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Bigger trade surplus expected
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Johannesburg - South Africa's foreign trade balance with its non-Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) trading partners is expected to have reached a R500m surplus in August from the R447m surplus of July, according to a survey by I-Net Bridge.
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Employment decline bottoming out
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Johannesburg - The overall employment situation in South Africa is still negative although there are some initial signs that the negative trend may be bottoming out, according to the latest Adcorp Employment Index (AEI) released on Tuesday.
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Mboweni keeps interest rates unchanged
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South Africa's central bank left its repo rate unchanged at 7 percent on Tuesday, amid signs that the economy is on the mend while inflation remains above the target band, but is seen moderating.
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CPI inflation slows to 6,4%
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South Africa's targeted consumer inflation slowed to 6,4% year-on-year in August, in line with expectations, from 6,7% in July, official data showed on Tuesday.
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SA 'easing out of recession'
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Johannesburg - Retail sales figures released by Statistics South Africa on Monday provided more evidence the country was easing out of a recession, economists polled by Reuters said.
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Reserve Bank likely to keep repo rate steady
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South Africa's central bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week, as concerns about the ailing economy abate and inflation hangs above the top end of the bank's target band.
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Mboweni: Sarb in capable hands
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Tito Mboweni, out-going governor of the SA Reserve Bank (Sarb) told the Bank's 89th Annual General Meeting on Thursday that he could look back with pride at the bank's achievements.
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Recovery on the way, but ‘it will be weak’
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The economy is set to emerge from recession by the end of the year, but the recovery will be weak, with both consumer demand and private investment largely out of action, Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) said yesterday.
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Manufacturing on the mend
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Johannesburg - South African year-on-year factory output fell for a 10th consecutive month in July, sliding 13.7%, data showed on Thursday, but production was up on the previous month, pointing to signs of a recovery.
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SA wary of debt threat
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The National Treasury on Thursday acknowledged the need for a pragmatic and disciplined fiscal policy.
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Slump in confidence dims hope for revival
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Business confidence in SA slipped in the third quarter of this year, with a plunge in the retail sector more than offsetting a significant recovery in manufacturing, a key survey showed yesterday.
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SA at 45 in competitive ranking
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Johannesburg - South African remains at an unchanged 45 out of 133 countries covered by the World Economic Forum in its Global Competitiveness Index 2009-10, it was revealed on Tuesday.
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SA’S reserves up on IMF allocation
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SOUTH AFRICA’S reserves increased in August, SA Reserve Bank (SARB) data showed, but not because of the central bank’s involvement in the market.
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Cutting food prices fine
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In April the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC) released a sensational report suggesting that the dominance of supermarket chains — through their buying power and ability to one-sidedly determine the terms of trade — could be a threat to food security and a vibrant rural landscape in SA.
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Rate cut on the cards
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South Africa's short-term negotiable certificate of deposit (NCD) is pricing in the possibility of one more interest rate cut of 50 basis points in September.
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Factories: signs of life
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The latest Kagiso Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August indicated that the SA manufacturing sector could rebound soon.
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Consumer credit down
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Consumer credit continued to slow in the closing quarter of 2008, the National Credit Regulator (NCR) said in its second Consumer Credit Report released on Wednesday, 26 August 2009.
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Inflation rules out rate cut
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Johannesburg - Inflation continued its downwards march towards the South African Reserve Bank's (Sarb's) target, falling to 6.7% in July from 6.9% in June. This was slightly worse than expected, with economists saying the number wouldn't trigger a cut in interest rates.
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Moody's: SA recovery coming
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Johannesburg - The monetary easing by the South African Reserve Bank which saw it cut rates by a further 50 basis points last week is expected to steer the country's economy toward recovery in the second half of this year, Moody's Economy.com said on Friday.
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Financial crisis pounds Africa amid recovery signs
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Amid signs the rest of the world may be recovering from the global financial crisis, Africa is still being hammered. South Africa's economy, the continent's largest, shrunk by another 3% in the second quarter, an omen that things may get even worse before they improve.
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SA economy stuck in recession
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South Africa's economy remains stuck in a recession, according to gross domestic product (GDP) data released by Statistics South Africa on Tuesday.
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SA recovery 'may lag others'
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Johannesburg - South Africa will likely lag behind the economic recovery and increasing optimism in other countries, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said on Monday.
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SA manufacturing output shrinks 17,1%
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South Africa's manufacturing output fell sharply again in June compared to a year ago, pointing to more pressure on the economy's second biggest sector.
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More rate cuts 'undesirable'
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Johannesburg - The repo rate, the rate at which banks borrow money from the SA Reserve Bank, has been cut by 5.5 percentage points since last year, but some economists reckon we could see it a further 0.5 down this week.
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Economists see unchanged rates
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South Africa's repo rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.5% when the decision is made on Thursday next week, according to nine leading economists surveyed by I-Net Bridge.
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Economy at 'tipping point'
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Strike-related disruptions and service delivery protests contributed to a tense, volatile business environment in July and could position the economy at "a tipping point" if not managed correctly.
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'Scope for another rate cut'
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There is just enough scope for another 50 basis point cut in South African interest rates to 7% next week, said chief economist from Econometrix, Dr Azar Jammine, on Tuesday.
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PPI drop boosts rate cut hopes
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South Africa's producer price index (PPI) registered deflation of -4.1% year-on-year (y/y) in June from -3.0% y/y in May, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) data on Thursday showed.
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Inflation continues to cool
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Johannesburg - The inflation rate fell for a fourth month in a row in June, Statistics SA said on Wednesday.
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Jobs target slipping away
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Johannesburg - Another increase in South Africa's unemployment rate during the second quarter has turned government's goal to reduce joblessness into a Herculean task.
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Economy may only improve from next year
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SA’s economy is unlikely to rebound until early next year, lagging a global upturn, and is set to contract 2% over this year, Old Mutual Investment Group (Omigsa) said yesterday.
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Marcus 'no pushover'
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Cape Town - Incoming governor of the Reserve Bank Gill Marcus has a reputation for being fiercely independent, which suggests she won't necessarily bow to labour demands to abolish inflation targeting, said an analyst.
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Retail stocks shrug off poor sales figures
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Retail stocks yesterday, 15 July 2009, shrugged off poor Statistics SA figures on sales, with investors remaining optimistic that next year will yield positive returns though the rest of this year will stay in negative territory.
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Retail dip may mean job losses
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Johannesburg - The 4.2% decline in retail sales for May year-on-year (y/y) is less than the market expected, but analysts warned negative numbers will persist until the last quarter of 2009.
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Who's doing the shopping?
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Johannesburg - Retail sales fell for the fourth month in a row in May, Statistics SA said on Wednesday.
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Bad debt hounds consumers
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The number of consumers with bad debts has increased, the National Credit Regulator (NCR) said on Sunday, 12 July 2009.
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Job fears hold back SA shoppers
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Johannesburg - Retail sales for May are expected to drop for the fourth consecutive month as the economic crisis continues to erode consumers' ability to spend.
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Debt worries affect all income groups
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The increasing number of consumers applying for debt relief came from all income groups, First National Bank (FNB) Credit Card head Barrot Whiteford said yesterday.
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SA consumers cut discretionary spending
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The challenging economic times are taking their toll, with the result that 43% of South African consumers are looking to apply the brakes on their discretionary spending over the next six months.
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Food prices are slowing down
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Retail food price inflation was "slowing", dropping to 13.7 percent from a peak of 18.8 percent last August, and decreases in food commodity prices were starting to filter through to retail shelf prices, MPs were told yesterday.
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SA net reserves show slight growth
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South Africa's net gold and foreign exchange reserves rose 0.2 percent to $34.574 billion at the end of June from $34.502 billion in May, official data showed on Tuesday.
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Business sentiment enters positive territory
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Business confidence rose last month, extending an improvement seen since April, but the mood remains fragile and vulnerable to changes in economic policy, a survey showed yesterday.
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Gordhan: Inflation targeting to stay
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South Africa will keep its policy of targeting inflation, which has helped to stabilise prices and encouraged economic growth, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said on Friday.
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Rising bank confidence disguises weak retail market
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The second-quarter Bank confidence index results, released on Thursday, indicate a slight improvement in sector confidence. However, a breakdown by category illustrates that retail banks’ prospects remain weak, whilst investment banks have seen an upsurge in sentiment, largely driven by business fundamentals.
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Consumer confidence improves - research
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In contrast to data on credit extension, the confidence index compiled by FNB and the Bureau for Economic Research shows consumers are regaining their confidence.
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Sharp fall in SA imports
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Johannesburg - An explanation for the surprise foreign trade surplus in South Africa in May can be found in the drop in imports from Asia rather than a sterling performance from exports. It is also a reflection of the tightening of the recessionary screws.
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Consumers shun retail therapy
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Johannesburg - Consumers are continuing to stay away from the shops, the latest credit data published on Tuesday by the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) showed.
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SA hit by triple whammy
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Consumers suffered a triple whammy this week, with stiff increases in electricity tariffs, the petrol price and no interest rate cut, the National Consumer Forum said on Friday.
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One more rate cut for SA
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Johannesburg - South African interest rates look set to fall another 50 basis points next week to help mend a faltering economy, but the cut may be the last in the current cycle.
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Manuel takes over Stats SA
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National Planning Commission Minister Trevor Manuel is to take over responsibility for Stats SA, Business Day reported on Thursday.
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No retail recovery 'until end of year'
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Retail sales fell 6,7% in April compared with the same month last year, the biggest fall since records began in 2003, backing the case for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates again at its policy meeting next week.
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Consumers avoid spending
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Johannesburg - Retail sales weakened further as the current economic climate put the brakes on consumer spending, according to data released on Wednesday.
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Economists criticise inflation targeting approach
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Inflation targeting is a useful mechanism for anchoring inflation expectations. But Brian Kantor, the investment strategist at Investec Private Securities, and Azar Jammine, the chief economist of Econometrix, say the approach should be flexible enough to accommodate unforeseen circumstances.
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Food price hikes expected
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Eskom's proposed 34 percent tariff increase would have an impact on the country's food production and food affordability, Agri SA said on Friday.
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'Pretty ugly' retail figures lie in waiting
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Figures due this week are likely to unveil more dismal news about the economy, giving the Reserve Bank ammunition to cut interest rates again at its policy meeting next week.
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'Dark clouds over economy'
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The South African economy is struggling and there are few signs that the situation will improve in the immediate future, BoE Private Clients said on Wednesday.
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Economists warn of recession shock
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SA’s leading indicator of economic growth, which predicts trends six to 12 months in advance, fell by a record 15,1% in the year to March — backing fears this year’s recession may be worse than expected.
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More rules needed, Sarb told
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A strategy planning meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank has heard a number of pleas for much stronger regulation of financial markets and institutions, and also advice not to over-regulate.
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Economy probably bottomed - Nene
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The economy probably bottomed in the first quarter when it contracted at a 6.4 percent annual rate, Deputy Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene said at the weekend.
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SA net reserves up at $34,502 bln in May
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Gross reserves stood at $35,842 billion in May from $34,407bn, the central bank said in a statement posted on its Web site, indicating the Reserve Bank took advantage of a firmer rand to build reserves.
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Business Confidence declines again
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The SA Chamber of Commerce Business Confidence Index for May 2009 shows the country is still in recession.However, the SACCI says the 81.9 for the BCI in April 2009 was an improvement on the low of 78.9 in March 2009. From a slow start of 82.4 in January 2009, the BCI has now been around the 82 level for the last few months. The average for the first five months has been 81.9 - which is 11.7 points lower than the average for the first five months of 2008.
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Mboweni unhappy with rand strength
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The South African Reserve Bank's (Sarb) tolerance of rand gains appears to have ended as the rand gained strength in recent days, RMB said on Tuesday.
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Relief for battling consumers
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The indebtedness of consumers is soaring as the local economic outlook continues to sour, but there may be hope on the horizon.
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Inflation crimps more rate cuts
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Stubborn inflation will prevent interest rates from falling much more this year, but there is little more that monetary policy can to do to boost the economy at this stage.
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April PPI eases to 2,9%
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PRODUCER price inflation (PPI), or factory gate prices, slowed to 2,9% year-on-year in April, from 5,3% in March,Statistics SA said today.
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CPI drops to 8.4%
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The Consumer Price Index used to measure inflation, dropped to 8.4% in April, reported Statistics South Africa (Stats SA).
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'GDP bigger worry than CPI'
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Inflation remained sticky at levels above the Reserve Bank's 3% to 6% target range in April, falling marginally to 8.4% from 8.5% in March, figures released by Statistics SA on Wednesday showed.
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It's official: SA hits first recession in 17 years
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South Africa's economy shrunk by 6,4% in the first quarter of 2009 on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis, compared to a contraction of 1,8% in the fourth quarter, official data showed on Tuesday.
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SA recession will be milder
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Johannesburg - South Africa looks set to contract by around 1% in 2009, but its recession will be milder than downturns in most other countries, according to Moody's Economy.com.
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BER sees three more rate cuts
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Johannesburg - Three more limited rate cuts of 50 basis points are expected in South Africa, said Professor Ben Smit of the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) on Thursday.
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SA Treasury: 'Downturn ahead'
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Johannesburg - Director general of the National Treasury, Lesetja Kganyago, said on Thursday that after a prolonged economic boom, South Africa faces a sharp, cyclical downturn, with the current account deficit likely remaining sticky.
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SA exports down 9,1%
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A DECLINE in exports represents the most important channel of impact of the international crisis on the South African economy, according to director of the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), Professor Ben Smit, on Thursday. Smit says the BER foresees an expected decline of 9.1% in total real exports of goods and non-factor services in 2009, but that the impact on exports is expected to moderate somewhat during the course of the year.
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Mboweni signals a recession as output plummets
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Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni warned yesterday that the economy was likely to have shrunk again in the first quarter of this year, which would mean SA had joined the global recession.
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Mboweni troubles banks
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Bank heads have called for an urgent meeting with Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni, following remarks by the latter implying that banks' prime lending rates are too high.
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US retail doldrums send JSE into dive
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THE JSE all share index fell 2,9% yesterday, the first drop in four days, after worse than expected retail sales statistics in the US drove global stock markets downwards.
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Fearful South Africans spend less
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Johannesburg - Over three-quarters of South Africans say they are more cautious with their spending as a result of the global economic crisis.
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March retail sales down 5,3%
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RETAIL sales fell by 5,3% year-on-year in March at constant prices, compared to a slightly revised contraction of 4,4% in February, Statistics South Africa said today.
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Trade conditions slump to lowest level ever
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Trade conditions slumped in April to their lowest level ever, according to the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s monthly Trade Conditions Survey released today. The Trade Activity Index (TAI), which measures current trade conditions, fell to 32 in April from a low of 38 in March.
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Shrinking factory output points to rates cut
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Factory output continued to dive at an alarming rate in March, confirming the economy’s second-biggest sector is still shrinking and backing the case for another hefty cut in interest rates this month. Manufacturing fell 11,7% compared with the same month last year, moderating from a record drop of 15% in February, official data showed yesterday.
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Numbers confirm depth of recession
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FIGURES due this week will probably add to evidence that the economy contracted during the first quarter of this year, which will take the economy into its first recession in 17 years.
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Sarb: Consumer debt a big risk
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Pretoria - South African banks remain well capitalised and stable despite a recent deterioration but high levels of household debt pose a potential threat to the financial system, the central bank said on Wednesday.
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SA business confidence up in April
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The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) Business Confidence Index (BCI) has improved to 81,9 in April 2009 from a depressed level of 78,9 in March 2009.
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PMI falls to 35,6 points
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PURCHASING managers index (PMI) slipped to a new all time low of 35,6 on a seasonally adjusted basis in April from 36,0 in March, sponsor Investec said today.
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Reserve Bank economist says slowdown could endure in SA
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Significant weakness in some of SA’s business cycle indicators “almost guarantees” a contraction in the economy early this year and points to a further slowdown in the months ahead, says Reserve Bank chief economist Monde Mnyande.
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Bargain-hunting at new levels
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As data released last week suggests the country is sliding deeper into an economic slowdown, evidence is emerging that financially distressed South Africans are eating less and buying cheaper food.
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Many more people are going bankrupt
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Debt summonses soared in February while wholesale trade plunged a record 8,9%, adding to the raft of dismal economic data seen so far this year.
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Interest rate cuts proposed to boost economy
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Interest rate cuts are among the policy responses proposed to minimise the impact of the global financial downturn, African National Congress (ANC) treasurer general Mathews Phosa said on Wednesday.
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Retail figures may signal start of SA recession
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Retail sales figures this week are likely to reinforce the view that SA’s economy contracted in the first quarter of this year, signalling the start of the country’s first recession in 17 years.
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Manufacturing output shrinks by 15,0%
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MANUFATUING output shrunk by 15,0% year-on-year in volume terms in February compared with a revised 12,9% contraction in January, official data showed today. Compared with January, manufacturing production in volume terms contracted by a seasonally adjusted 0,8% in February, Statistics South Africa said.
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Mboweni: No room to manoeuvre
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Johannesburg - SA's new government formed after the April 22 general elections, will have no room to manoeuvre when it comes to the economy, SA Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni said on Tuesday.
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SA consumer confidence bucks overseas trend
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CONSUMER confidence in SA has bucked the trend overseas by increasing in the first quarter of 2009, the BER consumer confidence index showed today. The index increased by five index points, from -4 during the fourth quarter of 2008 to +1 during the first quarter of 2009. First National Bank chief economist Cees Bruggemans said the global economy had deteriorated further since the previous survey was conducted during November 2008.
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Backing for more rate cuts
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Johannesburg - Growth in demand for credit by South Africa's private sector hit its lowest level in 4-1/4 years in February, central bank data showed on Monday, supporting the case for further easing of monetary policy.
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UN panel proposes new global reserve
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A UN panel of economists on Friday proposed a new global currency reserve that would take over the dollar-based system used for decades by international banks.
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PPI down again, pressure eases
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Johannesburg - South Africa's producer price index (PPI) rose by 7.3% year-on-year (y/y) in February from 9.2% y/y in January, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) data on Thursday showed.
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Economy heads for first recession since 1992
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SA’s economy looks set to tip into its first recession since 1992, with official data yesterday showing that consumer spending contracted at its sharpest pace in more than 17 years.
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Inflation 'a nightmare figure'
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Johannesburg - The increase in South Africa's consumer price index (CPI), which is used by the South African Reserve Bank for its inflation target, was up 8.6% year-on-year (y/y) in February from 8.1% y/y in January, Statistics South Africa said on Wednesday.
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Mboweni: Uncertainty growing
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Johannesburg - The monetary policy committee of the SA Reserve Bank has cut the repo rate by 100 basis points, governor Tito Mboweni said on Tuesday.
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Repo rate cut 100 bps to 9.5 percent
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South Africa's central bank cut its repo rate by 100 basis points to 9.5 percent on Tuesday, as expected, to help boost waning growth as a global downturn hits the economy.
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Interest rate cut may slow company failures
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COMPANY failures soared 70% last month compared to the same month last year, official data showed yesterday, backing the case for aggressive cuts in interest rates as the economy contracts.
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High food prices dashing hopes
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Johannesburg - South Africa's consumer inflation is seen quickening slightly in February on stubbornly high food costs, but the deficit on the current account may have narrowed in the fourth quarter, a survey showed on Friday.
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Slowdown ‘may bring manufacturing sector to its knees’
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An unprecedented contraction in global demand, coupled with the domestic slowdown, is threatening to bring SA’s manufacturing sector to its knees. That is the grim prognosis of the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).
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IMF says global economy could shrink 1%
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THE global economy could shrink by as much as 1% this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday, adding its voice to a chorus of economists predicting the first worldwide contraction since the Second World War.
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Rate cut of 100bps expected
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Johannesburg - The consensus forecast according to I-Net Bridge's Econometer is that the repo rate could be cut by 100 basis points next week and then another 100 in April, with the total rate cutting cycle amounting to 450 basis points when it is over.
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Mboweni: Time to review rates
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Johannesburg - South Africa's central bank needed to adjust and examine its response to a dramatic change in global economic conditions, Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni said on Wednesday.
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January retail sales rise, but worries remain
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South Africa's annualised retail sales grew for the first time in nine months in January, data showed on Wednesday, but analysts warned the rise may be short-lived as jobs are cut and economic growth wanes.
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Exports to fall 10% in 2009 as market shrinks
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Export revenue will fall sharply in 2009 after growth of more than 30 percent in 2008 due to a combination of weak demand and falling export prices, according to Nicky Weimar, a senior economist at Nedbank.
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Poor data may lead to quick cut
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Johannesburg - Manufacturing production continued to tumble in January, falling by its sharpest rate since the start of the series in 1990 and combined with other recently released economic data such as weak vehicle sales and credit demand as well as lower inflation, will probably give the Reserve Bank a reason to cut interest rates sooner rather than later.
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Manufacturing output plunges
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MANUFACTURING output plunged by its biggest year-on-year margin on record in January, pointing to further economic strain and putting the country on course for its first recession in 17 years.
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Business confidence at 10-year low
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Johannesburg - The Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) and Bureau of Economic Research (BER) Business Confidence Index (BCI) declined by six index points - from 33 during the final quarter of 2008 to 27 during the first quarter of this year - the lowest level in 10 years.
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Credit crunch hits home
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South Africans are feeling the effects of the global credit crunch and plan to cut down on spending and start saving in the next year, according to an international survey released yesterday.
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'Deadline' looms for rate cut
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Johannesburg - The "cut off" for a potential inter- meeting MPC rate cut will probably come with next Thursday's manufacturing production release, said Atlantic Asset Management in a research note on Friday.
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SA inflation risks remain
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Johannesburg - Consumer inflation will be just above the SA Reserve Bank's target band of 3-6% by the end of the year, as several inflation risks come into play.
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Business more upbeat but outlook for SA still bleak
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Business confidence edged up last month after hitting a six-year low in January, but the pick-up will not last as the economy faces “troubled times”, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) says.
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Worldwide food costs drop - but not for SA
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While food prices are declining worldwide as economies contract, South Africa is losing much of the benefit because of rand weakness over the past six months.Marius Nel, responsible for sector intelligence at Absa agribusiness, yesterday said international food prices had fallen about 40 percent.
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More pain for motorists
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Petrol prices will rise by 45 cents a litre on Wednesday — partly because of the weaker rand — but diesel prices will fall, the department of minerals and energy has said.
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Cautious consumers slow credit growth
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Evidence of slowing consumption continues to mount. The Reserve Bank said on Friday that growth in bank credit to the private sector had slowed to 11.85 percent over the 12 months to January2009, below expectations of about 12 percent.
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Mboweni: Early cut possible
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Johannesburg - South Africa's central bank Governor Tito Mboweni kept the market guessing on Thursday about a possible urgent interest rate meeting after data this week showed a contracting economy and slowing inflation.
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Inflation data dampens case for early rate cut
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Inflation subsided last month, but less sharply than expected, official figures showed yesterday, dampening speculation that the Reserve Bank may cut interest rates ahead of its next meeting in mid-April.
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SA in for emergency rate cut?
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Johannesburg - The 1.8% contraction in SA's output could result in Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni calling for an emergency rate cut.
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SA Inc proves quite resilient … so far
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More dismal news on the global recession, rather than the first contraction in SA’s economy for a decade, is what may convince the Reserve Bank that an early cut in interest rates is warranted.
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Recession stalks SA as economy shrinks 1,8%
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SA’s economy has contracted for the first time in a decade, with output sliding 1,8% in the fourth quarter of last year, signalling the country may have slipped into recession.
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GDP drops in fourth quarter
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SA’s economy shrunk by 1,8% in the fourth quarter of 2008 on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis, compared to 0,2% growth in the third quarter, official data showed on Tuesday. Stats SA said Africa’s biggest economy expanded by a preliminary 3,1% for 2008 as a whole — slower than 2007’s 5,1%.
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Hold thumbs for new rate cut this week
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After a series of critical economic indicators to be released this week, Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni could pre-empt the scheduled April meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) and announce a change in the official repo rate from 10.5 percent.
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Mboweni: Slump is good news
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Johannesburg - There were both upside and downside risks to South Africa's 1.2% growth forecast for 2009, central bank governor Tito Mboweni said on Thursday, adding that lower output would help significantly to lower inflation.
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Mboweni silent on timing of rate cut
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Rsesrve Bank governor Tito Mboweni sidestepped questions yesterday on whether an interest rate cut is imminent, saying SA’s economy would still notch up some growth this year, despite the global downturn.
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Rates may plummet this year
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Pretoria - Even if this is good news for South Africans up to their necks in debt, it's bad news for people like pensioners who draw a fixed income.
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'First retail slump in 8 years'
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Johannesburg - Next week's real retail sales data will confirm that household demand during the festive period was expended and should be the first annual contraction in retail sales in eight years, say Standard Bank's economists on Friday.
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Things could still get worse, says Treasury
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CAPE TOWN — Treasury officials conceded yesterday that if the global economic downturn proved to be deeper and more prolonged than expected it would pose a significant risk to the economic growth forecast they used to underpin the 2009-10 budget announced by Finance Minister Trevor Manuel this week.
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SA’s expected growth rate ‘looks heroic’
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News that the budget deficit was set to be bigger than expected was no cause for concern as it reflected the effect of the economy’s slow-down rather than a shift to more populist spending policies, analysts said yesterday.
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Sinners pay more (again)
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Cape Town - As has become a tradition in the budget, smokers and drinkers were again the recipients of a marked increase in excise duties, or so-called "sin taxes".
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'SA already in recession'
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Johannesburg - Manufacturing output in South Africa plummeted -7.0% y/y in December from the previous month's revised -6.4% (prev: -4.4%).
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Factories put in worst showing for 10 years
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Factory output plunged at its fastest pace in a decade in December as demand for exports fell, backing the case for more aggressive interest rate cuts to protect SA from the global recession.
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Mboweni drops hint of earlier rate cut
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Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni has signalled there may be another interest rate cut ahead of the Bank’s next scheduled policy meeting in mid-April if fourth-quarter growth figures are worse than expected.
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Mboweni 'wanted bigger cut'
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Pretoria - South Africa's central bank cut its key repo rate by 100 basis points to 10.5 percent on Thursday, as expected, and hinted there may be more cuts to come.
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Revamped CPI dashes hopes for bigger cut
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Inflation has fallen less than expected after a radical overhaul of official consumer price gauges, dashing hopes of a two to three percentage point drop when the change was announced last year.
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SA Jan-Dec CPI revised to 7,7%
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IN presenting its parallel price survey for 2008, Stats SA said today that the published CPI has increased at a faster rate than the new index, with its rate of change over the 11 months from January to December 2008 at 8,6% compared to 7,7% for the new.
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Glimmer of hope amid factory doldrums
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MANUFACTURING activity was stable last month after plunging to a record low late last year, but a key industry survey yesterday also showed that the economy’s second-biggest sector was not out of the woods yet.
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SARS ‘error’ adds extra R18bn to trade deficit
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SA’s trade deficit last year is likely to have been overstated by at least R18bn, due to an error that could have contributed to the rand’s sharp depreciation and negative market perceptions of SA amid unprecedented global financial volatility.
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Petrol price to rise by 61c a litre
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The retail price of all grades of petrol will rise by 61 cents a litre on Wednesday next week, the minerals and energy department said today. The wholesale price of diesel with a 0,0% sulphur content will drop by five cents a litre. Diesel with a 0.005% sulphur content will drop by seven cents a litre. The wholesale price of illuminating paraffin will drop by 14 cents a litre, and the single maximum national retail price for illuminating paraffin by 19 cents a litre.
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Private sector credit growth at four-year low
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Growth in private sector credit fell to its lowest level in four years last month, taking markets by surprise and giving the Reserve Bank more scope to cut interest rates aggressively at its policy meeting this week.
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SA 'not heading for recession'
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Johannesburg - South Africa could just skim the recession affecting developed economies thanks to some "shock absorbers" that could cushion the fall, says an economist.
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Producer Price Index up by 11,0%
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PRODUCER price index (PPI) rose by 11,0% year-on-year (y/y) in December from 12,6% y/y in November, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) data today showed. This is the fourth consecutive decrease in the producer price inflation number.
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Big rate cut expected as inflation plummets
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SA’s main inflation rates dived more steeply than expected last month, driven by a sharp fall in fuel prices and backing the case for a full percentage point cut in interest rates next week.
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Inflation helps rate cut hopes
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Johannesburg - The increase in SA's consumer price index excluding mortgage rate changes (CPIX) for metro and other areas, which is used by the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) for its inflation target, was up 10.3% year-on-year (y/y) in December from 12.1% y/y in November, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Wednesday.
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'Petrol won't hurt inflation'
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Johannesburg - The likely February petrol price increase is not a cause for concern for the near-term inflation outlook, as even with the expected 46 cents per litre (c/l) petrol increase, the petrol contribution to CPI would be an estimated -0.6 percentage points, according to Absa Capital on Tuesday.
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Petrol to rise again as rand weakens
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The retail price of petrol is set to be increased next week, bringing to an end several months of back-to-back decreases, according to economists.
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SA growth outlook ‘not a very pretty picture’
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SA’s leading indicator of economic growth, which predicts trends six to 12 months in advance, fell by a record 13,9% in November, official data showed yesterday, adding to evidence the country may be sliding into a recession.
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SA inflation seen sharply lower in December
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South Africa's targeted consumer price inflation likely decelerated sharply in December on cooling demand, hardening chances of steep interest rate cuts this year to help boost growth, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
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Surprising resilience
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SA consumers are not willing to shop on credit and incur more debt, but they are spending the cash they have — on very specific items.
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South Africans still optimistic
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South African consumers are the world’s third most optimistic, the latest biannual survey by credit and debit card association MasterCard found.
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'2009 will be worst of times'
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Port Elizabeth - South Africa is probably only halfway through the economic downturn that is expected to last 30 months, economist Mike Schüssler said on Wednesday.
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Retail nosedive raises clamour for big rate cut
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Retail sales tumbled 4% in November, falling for the seventh successive month and backing the case for more interest rate cuts to boost the flagging economy and help shield it from the global recession.
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Brace for early rates decision
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South Africa's central bank will hold its first monetary policy committee meeting of 2009 on February 4 and 5, moving it to a week before the release of the national budget, it said on Wednesday.
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SA economy 'weakest in decade'
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Johannesburg - Worsening domestic expenditure coupled with a contraction in exports point to the weakest GDP growth in over a decade, say RMB's economists in a research note.
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Retail sales doldrums bolster case for rate cut
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Retail sales are the main player on the local economy’s stage this week, with figures on Wednesday expected to show the third-biggest sector contracted for the seventh month in a row in November.
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Now mines, factories join retail in recession
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Factory output fell last month while mining production contracted in November, data showed yesterday, suggesting the two sectors may have joined retail trade in a recession during the fourth quarter of last year.
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SA economic confidence flat
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ECONOMIC confidence has edged up to a 20-month high, suggesting improved conditions towards the end of 2009 as inflation eases and interest rates fall. But the December Reuters Econometer released today showed economic growth will slow sharply this year, stung by constrained household spending and weak international activity, before recovering somewhat in 2010. The Econometer survey of 18 economists, a confidence measure of six-weighted indicators that looks at conditions a year ahead, stood at 260,86 in December — its highest level since April 2007 — compared to 260,65 in November.
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December business confidence falls
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The business confidence index (BCI) fell to 83,8 points lat month from 86,7 points the previous month, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) said today.
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Steep rate cut expected in Feb
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Johannesburg - Inflation could fall to as low as 6% in January and therefore back into government's inflation band - a development that could prompt a heavy cut in interest rates, economists have said.
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2009: 'A difficult year'
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Johannesburg - SA's banks say that while lower petrol prices have set the scene for an easier year for consumers, the worst is not over just yet.
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Govt: Food prices must be cut
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Durban - KwaZulu-Natal agriculture MEC Mtolephi Mthimkhulu on Wednesday called for food prices to be reduced following the drop in the price of fuel.
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Manufacturing shows strain
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South Africa's manufacturing output shrank by 4.4 percent year-on-year in volume terms in November from a downwardly revised 1.8 percent contraction in October, official data showed on Thursday.
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Survival of the fittest
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Shop managers at the commercial metropolises of Sandton City and Cresta were openly grumbling over Christmas at how little cash people were willing to shell out for gifts.
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Cheaper fuel, not cheaper food
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Johannesburg - Manufacturers and businesses may hold back for a while before they pass Tuesday night's fuel-price cuts on to consumers.
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Government's New Year's gift
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Johannesburg - South African petrol pump prices will fall by between R1.34 and R1.37a litre, or 18 percent, and diesel prices will drop by about 20 percent from January 7, the government said on Friday.
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'Chance of 1%-point rate cuts'
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Johannesburg - There is the chance of full percentage point cuts in interest rates in both February and April, money market dealers say.
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2009: Pressure off, say experts
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Johannesburg - Despite the somewhat worse-than-expected November inflation data, the inflation outlook for South Africa remains favourable, Absa Capital says.
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Weak rand may spoil outlook for rate cuts
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Consumer price inflation continued its decline last month, but not as fast as the market predicted, suggesting interest rates may not be cut as steeply as the market expects next year.
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CPIX slows to 12,1%
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TARGETED Consumer Price Index (CPIX) inflation slowed for the third straight month to 12,1 % year-on-year last month from 12,4% the previous month, above forecasts, official data showed today.
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Bumper crops set to ease food costs
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Johannesburg - Despite a late start to the planting season, South Africa's farmers will produce a food surplus, which should result in flat or lower food prices next year.
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'Rate cut was right thing to do'
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The cut in the repo rate made by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on Thursday was "the right thing to do", Standard Chartered Bank said.
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Mboweni cuts rates as inflation risks recede
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The Reserve Bank cut interest rates by half a percentage point yesterday, citing an improved inflation outlook, the effect of the global slowdown on SA’s economy and the “distress” of many consumers.
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Retail in full retreat as sales take deep plunge
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Retail sales fell for the sixth month running in October, Statistics SA said yesterday, while a business survey showed that trade conditions for wholesalers and retailers plunged to an eight-year low last month.
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Consumer confidence slides during Q4
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The FNB/BER consumer confidence index (CCI) declined by 3 index points - from -1 during the third quarter of 2008 (08Q3) to -4 in the fourth quarter (08Q4). A reading of -4 indicates that there are currently more pessimists than optimists.
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Financial woes hit upper class
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Johannesburg - The confidence level of the top income market is expected to be hit over the next few months as the drop in disposable income starts to chew into pockets.
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Reserve Bank faces rate cut dilemma
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SA’s deficit on the current account — its broadest measure of trade in goods and services — is likely to have widened sharply in the third quarter of this year, sharpening the Reserve Bank’s interest rate dilemma.
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SA seeks ‘flexibility’ from Doha trade talks
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SOUTH African demands for greater flexibility on tariff liberalisation in the Doha multilateral trade round have been flatly refused by the US and European Union (EU).
With its tariffs among the lowest for developing countries, SA has argued for greater flexibility under a new deal to offset deeper cuts it had already made. That was during the previous, Uruguay round of multilateral trade talks that ended in 1994, when SA agreed to tariff cuts as a developed country.
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Strong case for early rates cut
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Domestically, inflation news has improved despite rand weakness, and the case for an early cut in interest rates is now very strong, Nedbank Group's economic unit said on Friday.
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S&P: SA faces a tough 2009
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Johannesburg - Not even an interest rate cut would bring immediate relief for tough economic times in the new year, an international ratings agency said on Thursday.
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Cheaper petrol won't affect food prices
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Holiday-makers hitting the road this festive season will receive a welcome boost from Wednesday‘s R1.61/l drop in the price of petrol, but national supermarket chains say this is unlikely to bring food prices down in the near future.
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Petrol price drop welcome, but...
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Motorists and consumers stand to benefit from the largest fuel price cut ever in the country, but the price of diesel continues to be a point of concern.
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Food prices to fall
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Johannesburg - Food prices may fall this quarter, the National Agricultural Marketing Council's Quarterly food price monitor for October has said.
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Manufacturing activity falls to record low
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THE purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to a record low of 39,5 last month on a seasonally adjusted basis from 46,2 the previous month, reflecting a weaker local and global economic outlook, sponsor Investec said today.
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Petrol slashed to below R8/litre
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Johannesburg - The retail price of all grades of petrol will decrease by a whopping 161c a litre on Wednesday December 3, the department of minerals and energy announced on Friday.
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CPIX slows to 12,4%
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South Africa's targeted CPIX inflation slowed for the second consecutive month to 12,4% year-on-year in October from 13% in September, slightly below forecasts, official data showed on Wednesday.
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Inflation slows, rate cut likely
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SA’S targeted inflation rate slowed for the second consecutive month, data showed today, pointing to easing price pressures and backing the case for a cut in interest rates.
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Reserve Bank may be able to stop the rot
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NEWS that the economy slowed to a virtual halt in the third quarter of this year has given some credibility to the view that SA will join the global recession next year.
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Growth at 10-year low as economy hits skids
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SA’s economy virtually ground to a halt in the third quarter of this year, as sharp contractions in manufacturing, retail sales and mining curbed growth to 0,2%, its lowest for a decade, official data showed yesterday.
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Fuel price offers breathing room
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Johannesburg - Consumers who have faced a barrage of bad news recently can look forward to a hefty cut in the petrol price next month.
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Soaring prices hit home
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South Africans are cashing in their insurance policies, borrowing heavily, cancelling holidays and swopping eating out for entertaining at home this Christmas.
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'SA 2009 growth to slow to 1.9%'
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Johannesburg - South Africa's Bureau for Economic Research (BER) expects real GDP growth to slow from the 5% plus environment to 3.3% in 2008 - this being unchanged from what was projected when its forecast was last updated in July.
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SA economy bucks trend, survey finds
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SA’s economic climate improved in the fourth quarter, defying a slump in the global measure to a 20-year low, according to an international survey.
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Cycle has bottomed - JD Group
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JD Group believed the consumer cycle had "got to the bottom" and there were already "exciting" signs of an improvement, executive chairman David Sussman said yesterday.
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Rates relief ahead
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Cape Town - South Africa's National Treasury said on Tuesday inflation was likely to fall in the current economic environment, gradually leading to lower interest rates.
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Squeeze set to cut gift spending
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South Africans are set to cut back sharply on their Christmas spending as consumers try to stretch their rands to survive the harshest economic climate in years.
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Debt: Big earners struggle
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Johannesburg - The debt burden of South African households has increased by 21% in the year to end-June to an astronomical R1 139bn.
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Black middle class grows by 3m
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Johannesburg - A study released on Thursday by the Bureau of Market Research (BMR) at the University of South Africa (Unisa) estimates the size of South Africa's emerging black middle class as 9.3 million in 2007 from 6.3 million in 2001.
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Retail sales to spark rate cut?
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Johannesburg - Battered consumers continued to cut back on spending in September, with real retail sales dropping 5% year-on-year in the month. Economists said the figures, together with other indicators, could justify an earlier interest rate cut.
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Cut back on Christmas gifts
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The level of household savings has slowed to a trickle, prompting the South African Savings Institute to launch a Festive Savings Campaign in Johannesburg yesterday. In the second quarter of this year, household savings were at negative 0,8percent.
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Retail sales plunge as consumers take cover
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Retail sales dived 5% in September compared with the same month last year, marking the fifth annual fall in a row and confirming that the economy’s third-biggest sector is mired in a recession.
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S&P downgrades SA to 'negative'
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Johannesburg - Following the outlook downgrade by Fitch on Monday, Standard & Poor's joined the chorus of concerns about South Africa's current account deficit in cutting its outlook to negative from stable on Tuesday.
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September manufactuing output up 4,9%
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FACTORY output growth jumped to 4,9% year-on-year in September, largely due to base effects after a strike at vehicle parts manufacturers hit production in the same month last year
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Year-end rate cut on the cards?
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Johannesburg - The central bank's inflation forecasts may soon come to reflect lower growth and inflation risks, and this may prompt it to change its mind enough to lower interest rates in December, which is earlier than generally expected or discounted.
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SA external position is vulnerable
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A lower gold price and firmer dollar have combined to weaken South Africa’s international liquidity position in October. The prognosis for the external position in light of the global crisis and the current account deficit is also not good going forward.
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Retail sales figures likely to show further drop
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RETAIL sales figures to be released tomorrow are expected to show further deterioration due to a slowdown in consumer expenditure as higher living and debt-servicing costs are demanding a larger chunk of consumers’ budgets.
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Huge petrol price cut on cards
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Johannesburg - The department of minerals and energy (DME) could implement a retail petrol price cut of some 120c per litre (c/l) on December 3 2008 provided the daily over-recovery remains at or above the November 5 level.
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Business confidence plunges
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BUSINESS confidence dived at its fastest pace in more than 18 years last month, descending to its lowest level since June 2003, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) said yesterday.
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Rate cuts due in 2009
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Johannesburg - While the Reserve Bank held its cards close to its chest at yesterday's monetary policy review briefing, giving little away as to what the likely direction of interest rates would be, Nedbank's Economics Unit feels rates will be left unchanged come December 11.
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Slower growth helping inflation lower
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SLOWING global growth and lower commodity prices suggested that inflation pressures were waning, although turmoil in financial markets would complicate interest rate decisions for some time, the Reserve Bank said yesterday.
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Factory output continues to decrease
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MANUFACTURING activity in SA shrank for the sixth successive month last month, tracking a global downturn which will keep the economy’s second-biggest sector under pressure for the rest of this year, a survey showed yesterday.
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SA Credit Act a worldwide hit
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Johannesburg - South Africa's National Credit Act (NCA) has become a hit with policy-makers around the globe as the international credit crisis tilts the world economy towards the worst recession since the 1930s.
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Petrol price drops below R9/litre
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Johannesburg - The retail price of all grades of petrol will decrease by 45c a litre on Wednesday November 5 the department of minerals and energy announced on Friday.
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PPI data 'better than expected'
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South Africa's producer price inflation (PPI) slowed to 16% year-on-year in September from 19,1% in August, below expectations, official data showed on Thursday.
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Prices in SA 'cooling down'
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Johannesburg - The surprisingly low producer inflation reading on Thursday combined with a lower-than-expected CPI on Wednesday indicate that the upper turning point in South Africa's inflation cycle was passed in August.
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Johannesburg economy grows by 6.4%
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With an economic growth rate of 6.4% between 2006 and 2008, Johannesburg remains one of South Africa's most important economic hubs in terms of investment, business and construction.
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'Worst on inflation front not over yet'
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Retailers fear the worst is not over on the inflation front despite Statistics SA's September CPIX inflation index dropping to 13% from 13,6% the previous month.
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Producer inflation slower, backs rate cut
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PRODUCER price inflation (PPI) slowed last month, official data showed today, pointing to easing pipeline pressures that help the case for lower interest rates. Statistics SA PPI, representing domestic output, braked to 16,0% year-on-year last month, from 19,1% the previous month. On a monthly basis, PPI was at -3,5%.
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Inflation slowdown offers sign of hope
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Johannesburg - Inflation slowed for the first time in more than a year last month, leading economists to predict that this was the beginning of a downward trend.
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SA now brings in more food than its ships out
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Cape Town - Last year South Africa was a net importer of agricultural products for the first time in more than 20 years as local food production failed to keep pace with a growing population, according to a government food cost review.
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Credit growth slows to more than three year low
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PRIVATE sector credit demand growth braked to a three-and-a-half-year low of 16,42% year-on-year last month, below forecasts, adding to signs higher interest rates are cutting spending. Statistics SA said today credit growth slowed from 18,64% in August to its lowest level since early 2005.
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CPI for food in urban areas hits six-year-high levels
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In August the consumer price index (CPI) for food in urban areas hit a six-year high of 19.2 percent, according to Statistics SA, but supermarket groups Shoprite and Pick n Pay said food inflation had come off a bit last month.
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Factory-gate prices set to slow
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Johannesburg - The increase in South Africa's producer price index (PPI) is expected to have receded in September to 18.1% year-on-year (y/y) from the dizzying 19.1% y/y seen in August, a survey by I-Net Bridge has found.
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SA inflation seen slowing in September
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South Africa's targeted consumer inflation is likely to have slowed for the first time in a year in September, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, but a sharply weaker rand poses the risk of imported price pressures.
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Analysts not convinced on rate hikes
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Cape Town - Raising interest rates would have severe implications for suffering consumers, economists said yesterday in response to a recommendation by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday that the Reserve Bank should be on standby to increase rates.
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SA may have to hike interest rates, says IMF
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RISKS to SA’s economy have escalated with rising inflation, and interest rates may have to climb again to tame price pressures, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday.
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No room for tax cuts next year
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Johannesburg - The government does not have the flexibility for tax cuts or to make tax bracket adjustments in next year's budget, economists said on Tuesday.
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Treasury foresees inflation tamed next year
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INFLATION would fall back into its target range by the third quarter of next year, sooner than the latest forecasts from the Reserve Bank suggested, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel said yesterday.
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SA 'insulated' from global crisis
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Cape Town - Finance Minister Trevor Manuel says the storm that is the current global economic meltdown is fiercer than anyone imagined and, although its course cannot be predicted, South Africa finds itself in a position of relative insulation and privilege compared to most other countries.
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Food price shock
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We are forking out substantially more for our groceries — despite the fact that farmers are being paid less for their produce.
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Traders spurn unappealing rand
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London - Dealers are falling out of love with the currencies of emerging economies and retreating to old favourites such as the dollar and the yen in the turmoil of the world's economic crisis.
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Lower growth, surplus for SA
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Johannesburg - Finance Minister Trevor Manuel is expected to cut growth forecasts next week as Africa's biggest economy braces for the ripple effects of a global credit crisis and slowing world growth.
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Currency slump ‘set to delay expected rate cut’
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THE rand’s collapse this week will push inflation up next year and is likely to delay — but not prevent — a series of interest rate cuts which markets had anticipated by the end of this year.
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Recession grips retail as sales fall 5,5%
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RETAIL sales fell 5,5% in August compared with the same month last year, the steepest annual fall since records began a decade ago, official data showed yesterday.
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Global recession 'will cut profits sharply in SA'
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SOUTH African markets have been relatively sheltered from the global turmoil, with shares suffering smaller hits than stocks on the US and European markets. However, the looming global recession is likely to lead to a sharp fall in profits across the board.
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Rate cuts may come sooner
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Johannesburg - A sooner-than-expected dip in consumer inflation provides the backdrop for a potential first cut in interest rates four months earlier than previously thought - in February 2009 instead of June.
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SA banks not bothered by crisis
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Johannesburg - South African investment banks remain satisfied with current market conditions despite a more challenging environment but sentiment among retail bankers is worsening, a survey showed on Monday.
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No relief from cheaper fuel
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THE retail petrol price could be cut by as much as 25c a litre in November, but the depreciation of the rand is killing any benefit we would have derived from cheaper oil, analysts said.
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Retail revival is still some way off
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AUGUST retail sales figures are expected to show the sector remains deeply in the negative, and building-approval statistics are set to continue highlighting the weakness in residential investment.
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No change in rates
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The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has voted to hold interest rates steady , as unanimously predicted by leading economists.
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Business confidence at five-year low
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South Africa's business confidence index (BCI) fell to a new five-year low of 89,9 in September as a global credit crisis dampened sentiment, a survey showed on Tuesday.
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SA may battle to sustain growth
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SA’s financial sector is still well shielded from direct fallout from the global credit crisis, but the economy may battle to maintain robust growth next year as several of its main trade partners slide into recession.
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'More than 50% chance' of recession
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Johannesburg - Last week ended as it started: in turmoil. Commodity prices continued to tumble, the rand remained vulnerable, closing at R8.4405 to the US dollar, and the JSE closed the week at 22 678.25, down more than 7 percent from 24 499.9 a week earlier.
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Markets braced for more turbulence
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AFTER a volatile week, which saw share prices on the JSE fall back 8% and the rand slump to its lowest levels in five years, markets are expected to continue to be unsettled this week as investors await more measures to return stability to the global financial system.
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Crisis eases somewhat
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Consumers can expect some relief from rocketing food prices in the year ahead as bumper harvests worldwide signal that the worst of the global crisis might be over. Increases will slow and prices are expected to consolidate at higher levels once the dust settles.
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SA market ends a day of 'violent' trade
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Johannesburg - South Africa's markets had a "violent day" in terms of highs and lows on Tuesday, after taking a pounding in trade hit by the global credit crisis at the start of the week, said Standard Bank group chief economist Goolam Ballim.
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New hints about interest rates
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Johannesburg - South Africa's credit and money supply growth eased in August, while the monthly trade deficit shrank, giving the central bank more reasons to leave interest rates unchanged next week.
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Global crisis reaching 'maturity'
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Johannesburg - The financial crisis, dubbed by some as the worst seen in a lifetime, has spread to Europe and stock markets have taken a pummelling - but even so, some experts say it is in its "maturing phase".
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SA markets battered by risk aversion
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South African markets took a pounding on Monday, hit by a global stocks fall and a flight from risk, with investors worried about the stability of US and European banks.
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PPI for August jumps to 19.1%
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South Africa's factory gate price known as the Producer Price Index (PPI) has increased by 19.1% year-on-year in August compared with that at August of 2007.
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PPI set to hit dizzying high
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Johannesburg - The increase in South Africa's producer price index (PPI) is expected at a dizzying 19.5% year-on-year (y/y) in August from the 18.9% seen in July, a survey by I-Net Bridge has found.
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Fears of retail recession as sales tumble
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RETAIL sales fell 4,6% in July compared with the same month last year — the sharpest annual fall since records began a decade ago, fanning fears the key sector was sliding into a recession.
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SA inflation hits all-time high
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Johannesburg - SA's CPIX (consumer price index excluding interest rates on home mortgages) inflation rate surged to 13.6% in August from 13% in July, the 17th month running that the targeted inflation rate has been above the 6% upper limit of the target. The figure is an all-time high for the CPIX rate.
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SA retail sales fall, point to steady rates
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South Africa's retail sales fell 4,6% year-on-year in July, official data showed on Tuesday, pointing to continued pressure on consumer spending from previous interest-rate increases.
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SA's tougher credit rules are buffer to crisis - NCR
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South Africa is in a far stronger position than the UK and the US to withstand the economic downturn because it has a far more rigorous regulatory environment governing the extension of credit than these countries, according to Gabriel Davel, the chief executive of the National Credit Regulator (NCR).
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Mboweni warns SA of credit crunch risk
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GLOBAL financial turmoil posed a clear threat to SA’s economy and markets although local banks were relatively insulated from the crisis, Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni said yesterday.
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Confidence hits its lowest in nine years
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Confidence levels in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for nearly one-fifth of formal employment in South Africa, fell to a nine-year low between July and this month, according to the latest Bureau for Economic Research (BER) survey.
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Poor fight a losing battle with debt
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THE poor constitute the single biggest group of debtors in SA, and their ability to meet monthly payments declined fastest in the March quarter, the latest quarterly data from the National Credit Regulator shows.
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Trade activity index picks up
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The trade activity index (TAI) picked up further in August 2008 to 46 after registering 43 in July, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) said on Friday.
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Slowdown in local economy to be over by 2010
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The local economic slowdown, which had "no dramatic implications at all", was expected to be over by 2010, resulting in a return of buoyant consumers, according to a report by researcher Planet Retail.
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Confidence plummets to its lowest since 2001
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Business confidence has plunged to its lowest level since 2001. Economists say, however, that the worst is over and the bounce-back will start late next year, when interest rate cuts and cheaper oil make themselves felt.
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Inflation set to dive in 2009
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Johannesburg - The inflation debate has taken a very welcome turn in recent weeks. Since the end of 2006 almost all influential opinion leaders across the economy, as well as factual reports on inflation trends, have painted a gloomy picture.
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Crunch doesn't stop the rich getting even richer
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The old saying holds true: the rich do get richer.Even as world financial markets broke down last year, personal wealth around the world grew 5 percent to $109.5 trillion (R860.6 trillion), according to a global wealth report from Boston Consulting Group.
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New data give hope of rate cut
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Figures released yesterday support the case for an early interest rate cut. The Reserve Bank's Quarterly Bulletin reported an improvement in two critical ratios in the second quarter, the current account deficit, as a ratio of gross domestic product, and the ratio of household debt to disposable household income.
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Household debt falls for first time in five years
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HOUSEHOLD debt fell for the first time in nearly five years, while the broadest measure of domestic consumption shrank at its fastest pace since 1999 in the second quarter of this year, the Reserve Bank said yesterday.
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Business confidence dips to five-year low
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South Africa's business confidence index (BCI) fell to a five-year low of 90,5 in August from 92,8 in July as weaker local and global economic activity weighed on sentiment, a survey showed on Thursday.
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Consumers responding to rates
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Pretoria - The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) said on Thursday in the introduction to its latest quarterly bulletin that consumption in South Africa responded to rising interest rates in the second quarter of 2008.
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Consumer bill too onerous - business
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CAPE TOWN — The government’s bid to safeguard the interests of consumers by means of the Consumer Protection Bill was too onerous on business, representatives from various economic sectors submitted in Parliament yesterday.
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Manufacturing bounces back from record low
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MANUFACTURING activity in SA rebounded from a record low last month, but there is still ample evidence that output from the economy’s second-biggest sector is contracting, a key survey showed yesterday.
SA’s purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 47 from 42,8 in July — in line with an improving global trend as falling oil prices provided some relief for steep prices for factory inputs.
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Slowdown in credit growth
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Johannesburg - Credit extension to the private sector (PSCE) grew at a rate of 19.81% year-on-year (y/y) in July from a revised 20.39% (20.28%) in June, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) said on Friday.
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Unemployment falls to 23,1% in the second quarter
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SA’S jobless rate was at 23,1% of the labour force in the second quarter of 2008 from 23,5% in the first quarter, a revamped quarterly labour report showed today. In its latest Labour Force Survey, which will now be issued every three months against the previous twice-yearly reports, Statistics SA said the total number of unemployed people was 4,1-million.
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Inflation at 13%, near its peak, say experts
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SA’s main inflation rate rose to 13% last month, a touch above forecasts, but government bonds rallied on the view that yesterday’s figures helped the case for keeping interest rates steady for the rest of the year.
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Rates to cool next year
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Interest rates should ease next year, with several consecutive cuts expected from April onwards, economist Danelee van Dyk says.
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'We cannot live in debt'
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South African households that are deeply indebted are a worrying trend, finance minister Trevor Manuel said on Tuesday.Speaking at a policy debate in Johannesburg on the country's economic future, Manuel said the trend of borrowing was a disinvestment for the country.
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Improved labour survey heads list of economic data
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A raft of economic and trade data will be released this week, including the results of the revamped labour force survey, which will show whether the official unemployment rate has fallen further from the 23 percent recorded last September, the lowest level since 1999.
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Inflation set for new record high
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Inflation is expected to have raced to an all-time high in the year to July as the impact of electricity tariff increases approved for this financial year sets in.
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Absa: Banking to improve in '09
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Cape Town - Absa expects the retail banking sector to start recovering in the second half of 2009 but consumers will remain under pressure until early 2010, its CEO said on Wednesday.
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SA growth rebounds
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The return to more normal levels of production in the mining and manufacturing industries after the power cuts in the first quarter has seen SA growth jump 4.9%.
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Surge in GDP flatters to deceive
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ECONOMIC growth is likely to have accelerated in the second quarter of this year, but the surge will mainly reflect a rebound in manufacturing and mining output, severely knocked by power shortages in January.
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SA not cutting back on pleasures
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Cape Town - Consumers might be drinking cheaper versions of their favourite tipple in these tough economic times, but they are adamant that they are not going to cut out life's little pleasures completely.
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SA June retail sales fall
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South Africa's retail sales fell for the fourth consecutive month in June, data showed on Wednesday, a further sign that consumers are feeling the pinch of higher interest rates.
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Market sees small chance of hike
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Johannesburg - The three-month negotiable certificate of deposit (NCD) closed Monday at a yield of 12.100%, just a little higher than the current repo rate of 12% and hence holding out only a small possibility of a rate hike on Thursday. At current levels, the clear majority therefore expect an unchanged stance.
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Govt to give more support to emerging farmers
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Government is to intensify the support it provides to emerging farmers to increase local production as part of efforts to combat rising food prices and decrease its reliance on imports.
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Economy's dark clouds have silver lining
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Johannesburg - Economic confidence in South Africa rose for a second straight month in July, climbing away from recent 5½-year lows as an improved outlook for inflation and the rand pointed to better conditions ahead.
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CPIX to take a final bow
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CPIX, the measure used by the Reserve Bank to target inflation, will soon cease to exist.This is because in its revision of the consumer price index Statistics SA plans to change the way it measures housing costs for those who own their own homes.
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Consumers feeling the pinch
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Restaurants and clothing stores will bear the brunt of consumer angst, a survey by Virgin Money has revealed.
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PMI falls to record low on sales dip
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South Africa's purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to a record low in July, pointing to growing pressure on manufacturing activity as world growth slows and higher local interest rates bite.
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Interest rates appropriate to tackle inflation - Bank
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SA’S interest rates were at the right level based on where inflation stood, Reserve Bank senior economist Monde Mnyande said today. The Bank’s monetary policy committee meets on August 13-14 to decide on interest rates after raising the repo by 5 percentage points to 12% over the past two years to try tame inflation.
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August rate hike not a done deal
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Johannesburg - While food and transport growth rates were the biggest contributors to an above-consensus inflation reading on Wednesday, they may come off next month, and at the same time higher electricity inflation will then become a factor. All of which makes the upcoming rates decision on August 14 a particularly difficult one to make.
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Govt food price plan 'no good'
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Cape Town - The Agricultural Business Chamber has reacted cautiously to President Thabo Mbeki's plans to set up a national food control agency, saying that any form of direct price intervention by government could distort the market and impede food production.
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Food control agency on the cards
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Cape Town - The cabinet has approved a draft framework for a national food control agency, President Thabo Mbeki said on Sunday.
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Little respite from CPIX bogey
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INFLATION figures for June are to be released this week, and they are expected to continue on a relentless upward march ahead of the Reserve Bank’s interest rate announcement on August 14.
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Higher wages will lift rates - Jammine
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Aggressive wage demands are likely to encourage the Reserve Bank monetary policy committee to raise rates again next month, according to Econometrix chief economist Azar Jammine.
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Some relief at last
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All indications are that motorists will be paying less for their petrol next month and the likelihood gets better every day, say economists.
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Slowdown could limit SA's growth 'to 3,2%'
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GROWTH is likely to slow significantly this year and next as weaker private sector investment, a global economic slowdown and falling consumer spending weigh on SA’s economy, says the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).
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SA firms need to keep staff 'happy'
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Absenteeism due to stress increased slightly in South African companies this year as tougher economic times took effect, a study revealed on Thursday.
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Tough road ahead for SA
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Johannesburg - The Bureau for Economic Research (BER) said on Thursday in its third quarter 2008 prospects report that South Africa's economy faces a tough road ahead, but also that the new weighting changes to CPIX inflation would provide "some relief".
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Interest rates 'are probably at their peak'
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At a time when South Africa's economic growth is slowing and inflation is rising, the chief economist of Old Mutual Investment Group South Africa (Omigsa), Rian le Roux, is providing a relatively upbeat assessment of the outlook for both.
He says SA is ahead of the curve responding to rising prices.
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No food-price relief in sight
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Cape Town - Finance Minister Trevor Manuel has refused to zero-rate a number of foodstuffs for value-added tax despite pleas from left wing organisations including the SA Communist Party and the trade union federation Cosatu.
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Food crisis: Land reform blamed
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Cape Town - South Africa's failed land reform programme is to be blamed to some extent for the present high food prices, according to Nick Vink, professor of agricultural economics at Stellenbosch University.
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Wealth gap grows every day - report
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Cape Town - A government report says the economy has performed well over the past year but the gap between rich and poor is growing. State interventions are suggested to bridge the divide.
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No inflation error - Stats SA
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Johannesburg - In reaction to an Investec Asset Management report criticising the reported level of inflation, Statistics South Africa retorted on Wednesday by saying there is "no error" in its calculation of the official inflation rate.
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SA consumers 'stubbornly optimistic'
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CONSUMER confidence in SA remains stubbornly optimistic, according to an survey released in Johannesburg today. "The current index score shows that consumers remains positive despite a considerable drop in confidence over the last six and twelve months," said Eddie Grobler, senior vice president and general manager - Africa at MasterCard Worldwide.
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Trade conditions remain flat
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Trade conditions remained flat, the SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) said today as it released the results of its monthly Trade Conditions Survey for June 2008. After recovering to a relatively high level of 50 in February, the Trade Activity Index (TAI) steadily declined to 42 last month.
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Are SA consumers realistic?
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Consumer confidence in SA remains stubbornly optimistic, according to a survey released in Johannesburg on Wednesday.
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Slowdown 'points to factory recession'
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MANUFACTURING output stuttered in May, with the annual pace of growth slowing to a meagre 0,7%, reinforcing concern that the economy’s second-biggest sector may be sliding into a recession.
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NCA is a 'saving grace'
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While the effects of the 13-month old National Credit Act (NCA) have had a detrimental effect on property sales, its introduction has outweighed many of its negative consequences, Jose de Abreu, a senior partner at De Abreu and Cohen Attorneys, said on Wednesday.
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Recession is alarmist talk, says treasury
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Johannesburg - Economists yesterday poured scorn on projections that the economy could slip into a recession before the end of the year, while the treasury dismissed such predictions as "jumping the gun and alarmist".
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Drop in business confidence part of a cycle
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The business consumer index (BCI) is down again for June to 92.6 and signals a potentially long road to recovery for companies and consumers, but all is not lost, according to Innovation Group group executive Pule Mokoena.
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JSE takes beating as oil price surges past $146
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THE oil price surged to fresh highs above $146 a barrel yesterday while the JSE all share index plummeted more than 3% to close at 28392 points, wiping out all the gains made this year as resource stocks fell.
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Consumers sit under darkest cloud in 24 years
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Consumer confidence had its biggest drop in 24 years in the second quarter as oil prices surged to a record and interest rates climbed, according to a new survey by First National Bank (FNB) and the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).
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Slowdown in business activity knocks PMI
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THE purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 43,8 last month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, from 49,1 the previous month on a sharp slowdown in business activity, sponsor Investec said today.
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May credit growth ticks up
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SA’s credit growth rose slightly to 19,74% year-on-year in May, above forecasts and pausing a downward trend that had eased pressure for more interest rate hikes.
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Markets jolted as factory inflation reaches 16,4%
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PRICES of goods leaving factories, mines and farms surged by a shocking 16,4% last month — the biggest annual rise in 19 years — worsening the inflation outlook and prompting speculation SA may face two more interest rate hikes this year.
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PPI rockets to terrifying altitude
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Producer inflation continued to rise at a frightening pace last month - 16.4 percent over 12 months and more than 4 percent in the month, according to yesterday's release from Statistics SA. Kevin Lings, an economist at Stanlib, said last month's figure was the highest since 1989, while the monthly increase matched the highest on record, posted during the oil shock in the early 1970s.
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CPIX jumps to 10,9%
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SA’s TARGETED CPIX inflation quickened to a new 5-1/2-year high of 10,9% year-on-year in May from 10,4% in April, official data showed today.
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More pain on the way - Mboweni
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Measures to deal with surging consumer prices would hurt but the Reserve Bank policy makers were not "inflation nutters", Tito Mboweni, the governor of the bank, said in an article published yesterday.
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Rand again on brink of downhill plunge
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The rand is in danger of resuming its status as a one-way currency bet, according to Ian Cruickshanks, the head of strategic research at Nedbank Capital. Until its strong recovery from a trough of R13.84 to the US dollar at the end of 2001, the currency was regarded as easy game by currency speculators.
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BER sees tough times ahead for retailers
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The Bureau for Economic Research (BER) says in its second quarter retail survey that while there has been a respite in confidence, the expectations of respondents signal tough times ahead.
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Food, petrol prices drive inflation
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The price increases of food and energy are the main drivers of inflation, according to the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) quarterly bulletin released on Thursday, 19 June 2008.
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SA economy on eggshells
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Johannesburg - South Africa's current account deficit widened to a 26-year high of 9.0% of GDP in the first quarter of 2008 while the portfolio inflows key to funding it turned negative, central bank data showed on Thursday.
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Retail sales drop over two months
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RETAIL sales fell for the second month in a row in April, defying forecasts for a rebound and adding to evidence that consumer demand, the economy’s main growth engine, has slowed sharply in response to rising interest rates.
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SA’s trade policy ‘hurting the poor’
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HARVARD Group panellist and University of Cape Town economics professor Lawrence Edwards has strongly criticised SA’s trade policy. Edwards said import tariffs were to blame for maintaining high consumer costs through high levels of protection for certain sectors, while promoting an anti-export bias and thus inhibiting growth.
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Rates, inflation add to factories’ woes
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THE outlook for SA’s manufacturing sector was “grim”, with soaring inflation, rising interest rates, waning demand and business confidence sliding to a seven-and-a-half-year low in the second quarter, the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) said yesterday.
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Mixed response to smaller-than-expected hike
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There were mixed reactions yesterday to the announcement by Tito Mboweni, the governor of the SA Reserve Bank, that interest rates would rise half a percentage point. Consumers and businesses are feeling pain - at 15.5 percent, the prime lending rate is up by just less than half since June 2006 when it was at 10.5 percent. But they would be feeling a lot more had Mboweni raised rates by a full percentage point.
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Mboweni's credibility in doubt
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Johannesburg - The central bank raised its repo rate by 50 basis points to 12% on Thursday to counter surging inflation.
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Minister sticks to his guns on growth forecast
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Finance minister Trevor Manuel is sticking by his forecast for economic growth of 4 percent this year and 6 percent by 2010, even though hitting these targets would be a "huge stretch", he said yesterday.
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Lipstick index
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An indicator based on the theory that a consumer turns to less expensive indulgences, such as lipstick, when she (or he) feels less than confident about the future.Therefore, lipstick sales tend to rise during times of economic uncertainty or a recession.
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Cost of debt set to crimp spending
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Consumer spending is likely to slow sharply as South Africans count the cost of their debt.Carel van Aardt, a research professor at the Bureau of Market Research at the Unisa, says households are paying R224.3 billion a year in interest on R1.1 trillion worth of debt. This represents 16 percent of their total income of R1.5 trillion a year.
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Rising food prices threaten the poor
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South Africa has experienced the highest rate of food-price inflation since January 2003, the National Agricultural Marketing Council said in its quarterly food price monitor on Thursday.
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Interest rate pain finally delivers a gain as credit growth hits brakes
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Johannesburg - Confirmation came on Friday that the 4.5 percentage point rise in interest rates over the past two years is finally yielding results. Data released by the Reserve Bank showed that credit growth slowed sharply over the 12 months to April. Over the past few months, the declining trend is reflected most clearly in credit extended to the household sector.
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Stagflation clouds are gathering
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Inflation data released yesterday confirmed that South Africa is facing stagflation - a combination of slow growth and rising inflation. Statistics SA reported CPIX (consumer price index minus mortgage costs) inflation was 10.4 percent last month, while headline inflation was 11.1 percent.
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Double rate hike looms as inflation hits 10,4%
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RESERVE Bank Governor Tito Mboweni has warned that interest rates may rise by up to two percentage points at the Bank’s policy meeting next month, after news yesterday that inflation had accelerated to a new five-year peak last month.
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Inflation outlook 'quite worrying'
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South African Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni said on Thursday that the inflation picture was "quite worrying" and might get worse before it got better.
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Inflation targeting a 'useful framework'
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Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni on Tuesday said inflation targeting must not be abandoned as any credible central bank worthy of its salt would want to contain inflation at lower levels.
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Cartel busters begin to turn tide on price rigging
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When the competition commission initiated a strategic planning review in 2006, it marked the start of a more focused approach towards busting cartels.The results of the emphasis on stamping out price rigging are starting to show.
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Manufacturing output contracts
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MANUFACTURING output shrunk by an unadjusted 1,1% in volume terms year-on-year in March from a revised 3,9% expansion in February, official data showed today.
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Consumer slowdown starting to spread
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CONSUMERS represent the hardest-hit segment of SA’s economy in the slowdown, but their woes are likely to spread to industry as time goes by. A recent survey of the country’s top business leaders suggests this is already taking place.
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Adding fuel to the inflation fire
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WHILE people are trying to come to terms with rising food and electricity prices, the minerals and energy department had more bad news for consumers last week, when it announced fuel price hikes as well as increased levies on petroleum products.
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Demand for credit on the rise again
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THE March money supply and private credit extension figures released last week indicated that credit continues to be accumulated at a brisk pace in the economy, raising concerns about the resurgence in the demand for credit at a time when interest rates are on an upward trend.
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Imports to add pressure on trade balance
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South Africa's foreign trade balance with its non-Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) trading partners is expected to have reached a R5.1 billion deficit in March from the R5.8 billion deficit in February, a survey by I-Net Bridge has found.
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Inflation soars to new five-year high
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THE targeted CPIX inflation rate jumped to a new five-year high of 10,1% last month, beating forecasts and hardening expectations for another interest rate increase.
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SA runs risk of subprime contagion, S&P warns
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SA IS among the countries outside Europe most vulnerable to the global credit crunch, even though it is not directly exposed to the fallout from the US subprime crisis, says global ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P).
SA ranked 11th among 40 emerging market countries on S&P’s 2008 liquidity vulnerability index (LVI), mainly because it relies heavily on volatile portfolio inflows to finance the large deficit on its current account, S&P said yesterday.
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Cabinet frets over food security
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Cabinet is concerned about collusive behaviour in some sectors of the economy, particularly in the food industry, government communications head Themba Maseko said.
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Confidence at new low as SA feels the pinch
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CONFIDENCE in the economy and business prospects fell to a near five-year low in February, hammered by rising inflation, higher interest rates and power cuts, a global marketing and social research firm said yesterday.
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Grow more food
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WHAT to do about food prices? The Congress of South African Trade Unions is busy organising protests. The ANC has expressed concern. It’s not clear what any of these politicians want done about soaring food price inflation.
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Cosatu turns up heat on food protest
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Cape Town - Cosatu, the powerful labour federation, warned yesterday that South Africa could become the latest country to experience food riots, as it launched a protest campaign against soaring food prices.
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Cosatu adds voice to food price protests
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WORLD Bank president Robert Zoellick declared a global food emergency at the weekend as riots over food shortages spread around the globe, while in SA the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) warned it would mobilise thousands of members in protest at rising food and electricity prices.
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Higher food prices 'are here to stay'
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Cape Town - Consumers should get used to the idea that high food prices were here to stay and brace themselves for more increases, food industry players told Business Report last week.
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Responses to the Interest rate hike
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Global economic turmoil, prospects of recession in the US, rising local interest rates, rampant food prices and looming electricity tariff hikes would not derail the country's economy, finance minister Trevor Manuel said yesterday. Not everyone else reacted as optimistically however.
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Mboweni warns of 'tough times'
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Johannesburg - South Africa's central bank raised its key repo rate by 50 basis points to 11.5% on Thursday and warned of "tough times" as it fights accelerating inflation.
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SA consumer confidence plunges
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Johannesburg - The latest First National Bank (FNB)/Bureau for Economic Research (BER) consumer confidence index (CCI) recorded its biggest decline between consecutive quarters in four years between the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year.
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SA rushes to respond to EU on trade battle
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South Africa and other developing countries are scrambling to come up with a united response to the latest round of trade agreements with the EU, after many, including South Africa, refused to sign economic partnership agreements (EPAs).
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Central bank builds on reserves
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The South African Reserve Bank's (Sarb) dollar-denominated holdings of gold and foreign assets increased by $191 million to $34.39 billion in March from $34.20 billion in February.
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Rates decision too close to call
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INFLATION expectations may be what sway the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision this week, in what is likely to be one of its most hotly debated policy meetings in history.
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High oil price, poor roads to slow Africa
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African economies grew 5,8% last year, powered by rising commodity prices, but the growth is yet to be translated into social development, a report released this week says.
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Manufacturing activity at lowest in five years
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MANUFACTURING activity fell to its lowest level in nearly five years last month, suggesting the economy’s second-biggest sector may have contracted for the second month in a row, a key industry survey showed yesterday.
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Trade deficit shows signs of strain on rand
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South Africa recorded a deficit of R5.82 billion for its trade with non-Southern African Customs Union trading partners in February after the R10.22 billion deficit in January, according to Customs & Excise figures.
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Inflation Uneasiness
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THE trouble with the latest inflation numbers is not just that they are high, but also that no one feels quite comfortable with them because of recent changes to the methods used to calculate them.
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R10/litre petrol price possible
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Johannesburg - Economist from ETM Russell Lamberti said on Friday that he expects the petrol price in South Africa to remain between the R8-R9 a litre band this year, which means the price may be close to peaking.
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Non-farm employment up 0,8%
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THE number of people employed in SA’s non-agricultural sectors rose by 0,8% in the fourth quarter of 2007 compared to the third quarter, data showed today.
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February PPI 'a shock to the system'
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South Africa's producer price inflation (PPI) accelerated above forecasts to 11,2% year-on-year in February from 10,4% in January, official data showed on Thursday. Statistics South Africa said the headline number, representing domestic output, stood at 1,3% on a monthly basis, compared with 1% previously.
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Biofuel plans face big cost challenges
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A STATE plan to target unused agricultural land in former homelands for development to feed the fledgling biofuels industry will present formidable cost challenges.
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SA inflation set to surge
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Johannesburg - Consumer inflation excluding interest on mortgage bonds (CPIX) - the measure used by the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) for its inflation target - is expected to surge to 9.4% year-on-year in February from 8.8% a month ago, an I-Net Bridge survey has found.
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Rand prepares for CPIX data
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The rand was steady in early trade on Wednesday, awaiting consumer inflation data and Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni's speech to the Parliamentary Finance Committee.
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Slight dip in leading economic indicator
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THE leading economic indicator was reported by the Reserve Bank to have dipped to 123,1 in January from a revised 123,9 (125,9) in December. It leads GDP growth by around a year.
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Cashbuild proves that cash is still king
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CASHBUILD is an unashamedly cash retailer, reaping the rewards of staying away from risky credit offerings and selling to lower-income South Africans who are mostly unaffected by rising interest rates, higher car payments and leering credit card debt.
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Deficit eases to 7.5% of GDP
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South Africa's current account deficit narrowed to R157.658 billion in the fourth quarter 2007, down from a record R163.309 (R162.6 billion) in the third quarter, data released by the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) in its latest Quarterly Bulletin shows.
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Manufacturing confidence at near five-year low
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CONFIDENCE in the manufacturing sector plunged to a four-and-a-half-year low in the first quarter, hit by slowing consumer demand, higher input prices and power shortages, a new survey showed today.
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SA unable to profit from gold-price hike
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South Africa, producer of 30% of the gold in circulation today, is unable to profit fully from record prices for the precious metal as a crippling electricity crisis hampers production.
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Statistics SA figures paint bleak picture
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MANUFACTURING production rebounded slightly at an annual 1,4% in January from 0,3% in December, discounting power outages, but the picture for the sector remains bleak because of moderation in demand.
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Stats SA argues with itself and we all feel conflicted
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An embarrassing lapse by Statistics SA has created further confusion about the credibility of its producer price data series. The components of the producer price index (PPI) were recently updated and problems with the process delayed the publication of January data. They were finally released last week, more than a week after the scheduled date.
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Power prices 'will triple in next decade'
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Electricity prices will triple over the next decade as consumers are forced to pay for Eskom's heavy investment in new generation and transmission capacity to meet surging demand.
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Business confidence plummets
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Business confidence is at its lowest level in seven years as the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) plummeted by 19 index points to 48 during the first quarter of 2008 from 67 during the last quarter of 2007.
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Statistics of change
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IN THE business of statistics, continuous improvement is something of a mixed blessing. It makes for better data, which provide us with a more useful and reliable picture, but it also means those data aren’t strictly comparable with the previous lot.
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Retail sales hold key to rates
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FIGURES for retail sales growth in January — to be released this week — may provide further evidence that consumer spending is subsiding, which would back the case for keeping interest rates steady.
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Producer inflation at 10,4%
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THE new basket of producer price inflation stood at 10,4% year-on-year in January, official data showed today.
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Growth has helped richest and poorest
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SA’s poorest households have seen their incomes grow sharply in real terms since 2000, as the economy has grown and the social grants system has expanded, but inequality remains high, with the richest 20% earning nearly 70% of the income.
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Blackouts plunge PMI to 2003 level
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The purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to a four and a half-year low of 46.4 last month, knocked by slowing demand and the power shortage, sponsor Investec said yesterday.
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Food prices soaring
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Johannesburg - Rising food prices continue to threaten South Africa's household food security, the National Agricultural Marketing Council said on Thursday.
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Inflation dashes hopes of rate cut
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The increase in South Africa's consumer price index excluding mortgage rate changes (CPIX) for metro and other areas, which is used by the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) for its inflation target, was up 8.8 percent year-on-year in January from 8.6 percent year-on-year in December, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Wednesday.
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Rate hike pressure mounts
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Johannesburg - The Reserve Bank faced a dilemma after the release of the January consumer price inflation data showed the CPIX rate coming in at 8.8% against expectations of 8.4%, economists said today.
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Rising fuel price revives rate fears
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A SHARP slide in the rand coupled with further increases in the cost of oil means that local fuel prices are poised to jump by nearly 8% next week, putting more pressure on inflation and reviving the risk of interest rate hikes.
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Economic growth higher at 5,3%
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SA’s fourth quarter growth rate rose to 5,3% on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis from an upwardly revised 4,8% in the third quarter, official data showed today.
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Economic growth expected to slow
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The growth rate of the South African economy is expected to have decreased to 4.4 percent on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised (saa) basis during the fourth quarter of 2007 from 4.7 percent in the third quarter, according to a consensus of 11 economists surveyed by I-Net Bridge.
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SA’s first carbon tax sets precedent
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In times to come, the imposition in yesterday’s budget of a 2c a kilowatt-hour levy on non-renewable sources of electricity may be seen as the point at which the government began steering the economy along a more sustainable growth path.
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Budget delivers ’positive surprise’
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THE 2008 Budget delivered an "overwhelmingly positive surprise", Razia Khan, regional head of research at Standard Chartered Bank, said today.
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Shock for food prices as wheat futures rocket
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THE price of wheat on the JSE futures exchange broke through R4000 a ton yesterday to a new record on supply concerns, making increases in the price of bread and other foodstuffs inevitable.
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Markets await Manuel’s budget
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TWO issues will grab the limelight for financial markets in this week’s national budget — the effect of slowing economic growth on budget surpluses projected for the next three years, and the extent of official support for power utility Eskom’s delayed five-year expansion plan.
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No recession for SA
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Johannesburg - South Africa's economic growth was likely to slow in 2008, but the economy would not fall into recession, ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) said on Thursday.
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Food manufacturers call for drop in import duties
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Amid spiralling food costs with consumers already reeling from food price hikes, its expected that within a few weeks the cost of basic commodities such as cooking oil, soap and margarine are set to rise by 20% to 25% - pushing them out of the reach of more people.
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Retail sales dip has good side
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Cape Town - Real retail sales fell for the first time in six years and the trend is down, according to Statistics SA, but retail shares rallied on the news, as investors bet interest rates could only fall from their current highs.
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SA Retailers' seven years of plenty end in slowdown
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RETAIL sales have fallen for the first time in nearly seven years, signalling that rising debt costs and inflation have put consumers under strain, and making interest rate hikes this year look unlikely.
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Sales slump means rate freeze
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Johannesburg - Retail sales fell 0.5% in December last year from the same month in 2006, confirming that interest rate increases are hitting consumers hard. Economists said the decline vindicated the Reserve Bank's decision to keep the repo rate on hold.
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Rates expected to stay put in '08
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Johannesburg - The Bureau for Economic Research said in their first-quarter 2008 economic prospect report on Tuesday that despite the worsening inflation picture, it expects interest rates to remain unchanged for the rest of 2008.
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Inflation to peak at 9%
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Johannesburg - The Bureau for Economic Research said in their first quarter 2008 economic prospect report on Tuesday that a worrisome trend is that analysts have tended to underestimate inflation in recent months, and the BER now sees CPIX peaking at around 9% in February, before gradually easing towards the end of the year.
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Markets await key fourth-quarter figures
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FIGURES due out this week will shed light on how three key sectors of the economy performed in the final month of last year, but it is too early for any evidence of the effect of last month’s power outages.
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January business confidence dips
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Johannesburg, South Africa The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) Business Confidence Index (BCI) dropped even further in January to 93,8 after measuring 94,8 in December 2007.
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Growth trumps inflation as Bank plays it steady
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THE Reserve Bank left interest rates steady for the first time in nine months yesterday, giving more weight to the rising threat to economic growth than to SA’s deteriorating inflation outlook.
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Inflation surge to 8,6% will test Bank’s mettle
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SA’s main inflation gauge surged to 8,6% last month, a near five-year peak, but the Reserve Bank is expected to keep interest rates steady when its policy meeting ends today, to help cushion the blow that power shortages will deal to the economy.
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Load shedding to hit food inflation
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The negative impact of power outages on bakeries, milk producers and processors, and bottlers of perishable foods, which have been suffering severe losses from electricity blackouts, is adding to concerns of no imminent easing in food inflation, says economist from Standard Bank, Danelee van Dyk.
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Inflation quickens above forecasts
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TARGETED CPIX inflation surged to 8,6% year-on-year last month, slightly above forecasts and adding to pressure for higher interest rates.
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Outages threaten economic growth
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South Africa, which had forecast 5 percent annual growth until the end of the decade, would struggle to hit half that figure owing to its electricity crisis, economists warned yesterday.
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State calls for ‘urgent’ 10% electricity cutback
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ELECTRICITY will need to be rationed by 10% across all sectors of the economy immediately to end shortages that have paralysed SA’s mining sector, the government said yesterday, moving to head off a looming threat to long-term growth and investment.
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Brakes on for economic growth
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Econometrix chief Azar Jammine expects growth in South Africa to slow by 1.6% in 2008 after growing at 5% the year before, and the country's energy crisis could widen the gap even further.
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Tough call for the Reserve Bank
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A BARRAGE of key economic data this week will show that inflation surged again last month, but the Reserve Bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold to protect the economy from a number of threats.
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Lenders to help consumers trapped in debt
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LENDERS plan to launch a voluntary debt-mediation company in the next few weeks to assist the many consumers trapped in debt to restructure their financial obligations, says Bankers Association of SA (Basa) MD Cas Coovadia.
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Food security hobbles SA biofuel strategy
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Worried that it may be seen as insensitive to the food needs of Africa, the South African government, which is facing a general election in 2009, has chosen food security in framing a biofuel policy.
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Another tough year looms
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Consumers are set to endure another nine months of tough economic conditions, with the cost of debt already 40 percent higher than in 2006, according to Anil Thakersee, the managing director of unit trusts at Old Mutual Investment Group South Africa (Omigsa).
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Leading business indicator edges up
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SA’s seasonally adjusted leading economic indicator increased to 128,4 in November from a revised 127,9 in October the Reserve Bank said today.
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‘Benign outlook’ for local economy
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THERE will be few domestic data this week for local markets to get their teeth into, as they brace for a barrage of crucial news on inflation followed by the Reserve Bank’s decision on interest rates next week.
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Signs point to bumpy ride for rand this year
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THE rand faces a rough ride this year after sinking through the key R7/dollar level yesterday, with slowing domestic and global growth, reduced risk appetite from investors and falling commodity prices likely to weigh on the volatile unit.
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US recession jitters put markets on back foot
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LOCAL stocks plunged yesterday to levels not seen since August last year as global markets took further strain over increasing fears that the US economy is headed for a recession.
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Rate hikes hammer retail sales
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GROWTH in retail sales slowed to a virtual halt in November, rising at its slowest pace in nearly five years and backing the case for the Reserve Bank to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting late this month.
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