Retail sales grew 5.97% in 3Q 2011
Predictive Communications - Mar 2nd 2012, 09:21
Nominal retail sales grew 5.97% in the third quarter of 2011, compared on a year-on-year basis. This is the word from property management group Broll , based on its quarterly Retail Barometer.
Sanett Uys , GM Group Research and Marketing at Broll, says nominal retail sales remained positive through to the end of the third quarter, with capitalisation rates remaining stable. Gross rentals remained flat and little movement was expected to the end of the year and into 2012, but festive retail sales were expected to grow by up to 12%, in line with the trend of 2010.
“Private consumption has performed well in recent months,” says Uys, “and the sale of new vehicles turned in a good performance in the third quarter of 2011, showing 4.4% growth. Economists hope consumption will grow by 4.3% in 2012.”
South African exports did well, with growth of 21% in dollar terms, according to Oxford Economics. This figure is supported by the growth of the Chinese economy.
Consumer price inflation rose to 5.7% in this period, with the petrol price and weakening rand set to play a major role in the short term. As a consequence, the SA Reserve Bank is likely to hold the repo rate steady until June 2012.
Another prime indicator is that employment grew 2.7% in this period, the highest since 2008.
“Rentals in shopping centres are starting to climb upwards,” adds Uys, “but those in street-front shops remain flat. Johannesburg and Cape Town are showing the best improvement.”
Average footcounts in most centres showed an improvement of between 1.6% and 4%, with bottle stores the best performer since October 2010. Grocery stores and supermarkets returned to positive growth, peaking at 3% growth in September 2011.
In analysing the trading densities for the apparel and food merchandise categories, food speciality had the highest monthly trading density at R2 754, followed by accessories at R2 694 and bottle stores at R2 509. The lowest trading densities were recorded by ladies’ fashion at R1 616. Accessories had the highest rental-to-turnover ratio at nearly 22%, followed by children’s fashion at 20% and food speciality at 15%.
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