Retail petrol price should fall in June
Business Live - May 7th 2012, 07:58
The retail petrol price should fall by about 53 cents per litre (c/l) on June 6 if the international petrol price and rand exchange remain at their May 3 level for the rest of this month, data from the Central Energy Fund showed.
The Department of Energy normally announces the reduction or increase of the monthly retail petrol price on the last Friday of the month for implementation on the first Wednesday of the following month.
This is based on the average of the daily over- or under-recovery for the averaging period and whatever other imposts, such as fuel levies, are adjusted.
The averaging period for the June price adjustment is from April 25 to May 31. The average up until May 3 was an over-recovery of 26.918 c/l as international petrol prices have been on a downward trend since peaking on April 3. The daily over-recovery on May 3 was 61.842 c/l.
An over-recovery normally implies a price cut at the next adjustment, while an under-recovery results in a price rise.
On Friday, weaker than expected US nonfarm payrolls sent the benchmark US crude oil price below $100 per barrel for the first time since February, so further petrol price cuts are in prospect, provided the rand does not lose more of its value.
During 2010 as a whole, the US economy created just over 1 million jobs or a monthly average of 86,000. In 2011, the monthly average job creation grew to just over 150,000, while in the first quarter of 2012 job creation jumped to a monthly average of just over 210,000.
This was however in part due to exceptionally mild winter weather, which pulled the seasonally adjusted monthly increases into January and February. That is why the March and April non-farm payroll gains of 154,000 and 115,000 have disappointed market expectations, which were for a 205,000 gain in March and a 168,000 rise in April.
The rand should have gained as the euro gained against the US dollar and was trading at $1.3111 at 17:03 on Friday compared with $1.3147 at 14:45, shortly after the data was released at 14:30. On Friday however the drop in commodity prices outweighed the benefit of a weaker US dollar and the rand was trading at R7.8171 to the US dollar at 17:07 compared with R7.7327 at 14:45.
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