Namibia's Inflation in 2014 seen at 6,5% after rebasing
FMCG SUPPLIER NEWS
Namibian.com.na - Dec 5th, 09:41
SIMONIS Storm Securities expect inflation to hover above 6,5% next year based on a lower base this year but additionally based on the price movements in key categories.
In November, the Namibia Statistics Agency rebased the Namibia Consumer Price Index (NCPI) from the one used since 1994, so that it could reflect current consumer patterns.
“As a result of the rebasing and reweighting of the NCPI, we have revised our forecasts for future inflation rate numbers. October’s inflation numbers are 4,9% while our estimates stood at 4,8%. For November, we expect the basket to grow to 104,9 and the annualised inflation numbers to come in at 4,6%. During 2014, we expect inflation to hover above 6,5% based on a lower base this year but additionally based on the price movements in key categories,” SSS said in a report.
The report said in the food and non alcoholic beverages category, the weight has been revised downwards from 29,6% to 16,3%.
“The index therefore rose from 103,5 in September to 104,6 in October. This represents a monthly increase of one percent and a subdued year on year growth of 4,8%. The data suggests that the previous weight in this category may have overstated the inflation numbers. According to the NSA, spending patterns have changed an “average” Namibian spending a smaller proportion of their income on food,” the report said.
The housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels category saw its weight increased from 20,6% to 28,4%.
“This is evidently based of increasing prices of houses and utilities. The year on year growth figures show a subdued growth of 3,3%. In line with our expectations, the agency increased the weight of the subsector of communications from 0,9% to 3,8%. The weight should theoretically capture movement in pricing of telecommunication devices and services offered in Namibia,” SSS said.
The alcoholic beverages and tobacco category saw its weight has increased substantially from 3,3% to 12,6%.
“The warranted change is based on adjustments the Agency has made for suspected underreporting that may have occurred during the publication of the NHIES survey. Additionally, adjustments have been made based on price changes between that period and the current base year. The implication is that an “average” consumer spends 12% of their income on alcoholic beverages and tobacco,” SSS said. From Namibian.com.na
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