Advertise with

Retail September trade growth seen at 6.5%
Retail September trade growth seen at 6.5%

Retail September trade growth seen at 6.5%


Business Live - Nov 15th 2011, 10:33

Growth in SA’s retail trade sales at constant (2008) prices for September is expected to lose momentum to a decrease of 6.5% year on year (y/y), from a y/y growth of 7.1% in August, according to a survey of leading economists by BusinessLIVE. 

Forecasts among the eight economists ranged from 5.7% to 7.1%.

Nedbank economists, Johannes Khosa, Carmen Altenkirch and Dennis Dykes said slower growth in consumer incomes and muted consumer confidence were likely to have dampened sales growth over the month, with month-on–month sales likely to have remained flat.

On an annual basis, growth in retail sales is forecast to have eased to about 5% following a 7.1% surge in August, the economists noted.

Meanwhile, Absa Capital’s Gina Schoeman said the final piece of the third quarter GDP puzzle would be released this week in the form of September retail sales.

“We look for retail sales growth to measure 6.4% y/y from 7.1% y/y, August - slower, but nevertheless still robust which is critical for the third quarter GDP.

“If we are correct, retail sales growth on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate basis would measure around 5.0%, versus 2.4% q/q previously - this would imply that the trade sector was able to support overall economic growth in the quarter,” the economist commented.

Zandile Makhoba, economist at Econometrix, said that although retail sales growth was expected to decline somewhat during September, it was expected to remain robust around 6.0% y/y, raising the third quarter of 2011's retail sales growth average from the second quarter of 2011.

“The sharp improvement in retail sales growth in August came as a surprise to the market, pointing to a more resilient consumer demand in the economy despite the rising trend in consumer prices - retail sales growth improved to 7.1% y/y in August from 3.0% y/y in July, she said.

Makhoba added that August's figures suggested that price pressures on household balance sheets were likely to lag the rise in inflation, while the low interest rate environment and stronger increases in wage rates and salaries provide a buttress to consumer demand.

The September retail trade sales data will be released by Statistics SA at 13:00 on Wednesday, November 16. 

Read more about: | analysis | consumers | retail trade

Related News

Multi-million rand Rustenburg Mall underway
09/09/2019 - 11:07
Rustenburg shoppers can look forward to a brand new shopping centre – Rustenburg Mall – set to introduce its first phase in April 2021.

Introducing the Cape Fine and Rare Wine Auction
23/08/2019 - 10:07
With the world market increasingly focused on the fine and rare wines from South Africa, the Cape Winelands is in a stronger position than ever to showcase its fine wine investments. This year, the Cape Winelands is proud to host its first-ever Cape Fine & Rare Wine Auction, an evolution of the historic Nederburg Auction in 1975.

Boost for SA's economy as China lifts its beef ban
07/08/2019 - 09:10
Within one month of the meeting between President Cyril Ramaphosa and President Xi Jinping at the G20, China has announced that it is lifting the ban on South African beef exports to China. This will be a major boost to South Africa’s economy given that China is the largest consuming market for South African beef and related products.

South Africa’s economy ‘doesn’t have a long time’
02/08/2019 - 12:57
South Africa’s outlook has been dealt several heavy blows following Eskom’s financial results, and the latest unemployment data, which has raised the question: where to from here?

Inducing consumer paralysis: how retailers bury customers in an avalanche of choice
01/07/2019 - 10:35
Do you think you are paying more than you should for energy, banking, insurance, internet, and phone services? You are not alone, and you are probably right.